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GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #6239

"COVID-19 and long-run trade patterns. Asymmetric impact across regions and sectors and acceleration of the introduction of new technologies"
by Bekkers, Eddy, Bob Koopman, Giulia Sabbadini and Robert Teh


Abstract
We employ the WTO Global Trade Model (GTM) to generate quantitative projections on the expected long-run impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global trade patterns. We examine two main channels: the acceleration of the introduction of new technologies and the asymmetric impact on different sectors and regions because of the nature of the COVID-19 pandemic and differences in policies. Five trends in new technologies are expected to impact the economy in general and trade flows in particular and we explore how COVID-19 will accelerate these trends: (i) robotization leading to a reallocation of tasks between labor and capital; (ii) servicification of the production process; (iii) digitalization leading to falling trade costs; (iv) the shift to online sales (e-commerce); (v) the reduced importance of face-to-face interaction. The asymmetric impact on regions is explored by comparing pre-COVID-19 macroeconomic projections from the IMF with projections taking COVID-19 into account.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2021 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 24th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Virtual Conference)
Date: 2021
Version:
Created: Teh, R. (4/12/2021)
Updated: Teh, R. (4/12/2021)
Visits: 30
- Baseline development
- Dynamic modeling
- Economic crisis
- Economic growth
- Technological change
- Trade in services
- Not Applicable


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