"Global Climate Change and Agriculture" by Marinos E.Tsigas, George Frisvold, and Betsey Kuhn. Chapter 11 of "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications", Thomas W. Hertel (editor). Based on the README file prepared by Betina V. Dimaranan. **************************************************************************** I. REGIONS AND COMMODITIES Regions: CAN Canada USA US MEX Mexico E_U EU CHN China ASN Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Philippines (ASEAN) AUS Australia ROW Rest of the World Sectors: rice Paddy rice wheat Wheat othgrain Other grains othcrops Nongrain crops livestck Livestock, wool OAgrFood Processed agricultural commodities manufact Mining and manufactures services Services DATA BASEDATA.HAR: This is a modified version of the original data file and is the one actually used in the experiments. Primary factor payments for Mexican agriculture were modified based on data for Brazil and Argentina. The value-added cost shares used for Mexican agriculture are: land, 0.37; capital, 0.37; and labor, 0.26. II. EXPERIMENT FILES: SHOCKS, CLOSURES AND SOLUTION METHOD To replicate the experiments with RunGTAP, go to "SOLVE" in RunGTAP, click in "Load Experiment" and choose from EXP1--EXP4. This automatically loads the shocks, closure, parameters and solution method for the experiment of interest. EXP1: First of two partial equilibrium (PE) experiments. This multi-region PE experiment simulates the impact of climate change on the agricultural commodities sectors. EXP2: Second PE experiment which simulates the impact of climate change not only on the agricultural commodities sectors but also on the agricultural processing sectors. EXP3: Implements a general equilibrium (GE) experiment which simulates the impact of climate change on the global economy. EXP4: Implements a GE experiment which simulates the impact of climate change when there is NO CO2 effect on the global economy. CLOSURE The first two experiments use multiregion partial equilibrium closures. Output prices and quantities supplied by crops and livestock are endogenous; output prices and quantities supplied by the other sectors of the economy are exogenous. Land rents are the only endogenous primary factor price; the effect of household income changes is not considered. Thus, in this simulation, the crops and livestock sectors will face six new prices (rice, wheat, other grains, other crops, livestock and land rents), and they will optimally adjust output supply and input demands. Experiments 3 and 4 use the regular GTAP "Book", general equilibrium closure. SOLUTION METHOD method = Euler ; steps = 1 2 4 ; NOTE: This method doesn't give very good accuracy, so you may wish to switch to Gragg 2 4 6 with automatic accuracy. GENERATING SUMMARY INFORMATION Of the results reported in Table 3, many of them can be generated via judicious use of the RunGTAP utilities. 1. The shares can largely be obtained from GTAPVIEW. 2. GE demand elasticities may be obtained by going to View|basedata|GE elasticities. 3. The partial equilibrium demand elasticities by commodity and by region could be obtained by appropriately modifying the GE elasticity closure file and tricking RunGTAP into computing them as GE elasticities. Generation of partial equilibrium elasticities can alternatively be done using the procedure described in Chapter 5 of the GTAP book. 4. Some of the results reported in Tables 4-7 of the Chapter are not available in the standard GTAP code. These variables include: producer surplus($); agricultural employment; and income change($). They must be computed via side calculations.