GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7313 |
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"Comparing food system sectoral changes in 2050 with historical transformations: A multi-model analysis" by Gibson, Matthew, Marina Sundiang, Daniel Mason-D'Croz, Thais Diniz Oliveira, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Felicitas Beier, Alex Popp, Willem-Jan van Ziest, Hans van Meijl, Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, Maksym Chepeliev, Detlef Van Vuuren, Elke Stehfest, Jonathan Doelman, Petr Havlik, Marta Kozicka, Keith Wiebe, Abhijeet Mishra, Tomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Fujimori, Marco Springmann, Page Kyle, Ronald Sands, Jordan Hristov, Ignacio Perez Dominguez and Mario Herrero Abstract Food systems must transform in pursuit of health, sustainability, and justice goals. The scale and distribution of these profound changes across different food sectors is underexplored. We examine possible impacts on food sectors, contextualised with historical data, of a global food systems transformation in 2050. We do this through modelling a transformation scenario composed of dietary change, productivity growth, and halving of food loss and waste using a multi-model ensemble of 8 global economic models. We find that the scale of land reduction by 2050 is likely without precedent in at least 2,000 years, as, despite population increasing to 9.6bn, there are declines of 515Mha (-11%) on 2020 levels, within which cropland increases by 220Mha (14%) and grazing falls by 739Mha (-23%). These changes follow an overall 19% decrease in agricultural production, both by mass (-1bn tonnes) and economically (-$1.5tn) in 2050 versus current trends. Within this, the value of livestock production collapses (-$2tn, -X%) with declines also in cereal crop value of 600bn (Y%), partially offset by increases in the value of vegetable, fruit, and nut production ($0.7tn Y%). The ahistorical nature of the transformation and resulting economic restructuring necessitates a paradigm shift in the intentionality of policymaking, commensurate with both catalysing such a transformation, and navigating the political economic consequences of its impacts. |
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- Sustainable development - Food prices and food security - Partial and general equilibrium models - Global |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
