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About GTAP: GTAP in the News

Studies, stories and more by GTAP Network members using GTAP data.

The Center is always interested to learn when GTAP-based analysis is recognized on a platform, such as the piece(s) below. If you have similar items you wish to share with the Center and broader GTAP community, please feel free to email them to Ginger Batta.

2017 (37)

Will the resurrected TPP be ratified?
December 2017 - On the sidelines of the APEC Summit in Vietnam, 11 countries on the Pacific Rim decided to go ahead with the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) despite the US withdrawal.
TPP's Resurrection: Will It Be Finally Ratified? - OpEd
November 2017 - The resurrected and renamed TPP, or the CPTPP, is a "high quality agreement" in terms of content and economic impacts. The ratification rule has been revised, which should facilitate the signing of the final agreement.
Carbon's economic damage costlier than thought based on current science
November 2017 - WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. - The data used to calculate the damage that an additional ton of carbon dioxide has on the global economy has long relied on outdated science. Recent updates modeled by the University of California, Davis and Purdue University raise the calculations of those costs significantly and change the outlook on climate change from a positive for agriculture to a negative.
Three Purdue professors elected fellows of the American Association for the Advancement of Science
November 2017 - WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. - Three Purdue University professors have been awarded the distinction of fellow from the American Association for the Advancement of Science, the world's largest general scientific society.
Carbon's economic damage costlier than thought based on current science
November 2017 - The data used to calculate the damage that an additional ton of carbon dioxide has on the global economy has long relied on outdated science. Recent updates modeled by the University of California, Davis and Purdue University raise the calculations of those costs significantly and change the outlook on climate change from a positive for agriculture to a negative.
Should the Social Cost of Carbon Be Higher​?
November 2017 - As the Trump administration slashes federal estimates of the future costs of climate change, new research suggests that even the much higher cost calculated by the Obama administration might be too low.
The Social Cost of Carbon Doubles
November 2017 - The "social cost of carbon" - an influential figure used by policymakers to weigh the value of efforts that reduce greenhouse gas emissions - is outdated and underestimated. Updated estimates focused on the agricultural sector alone more than double the social cost of carbon, according to analysis from the University of California, Davis, and Purdue University.
Is TPP Dead without America?
November 2017 - Perhaps no trade deal has been agreed to more times than the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) has, firstly in 2005 taking the form of the Trans-Pacific Strategic and Economic Partnership, and then in 2016 as the enlarged U.S.-led TPP-12, and (hopefully) finally in November 2017 with the renamed "Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership" (CPTPP). The CPTPP, once a legal text is fully worked out, will take effect when six of the eleven remaining countries ratify it.
Climate Change Could Be Costlier For Farmers, Study Finds
November 2017 - New research from Purdue University finds that climate change could have far more adverse impacts on agriculture than originally thought.
Managing the Global Commons: Open Source Tools to Support Sustainable Agriculture and Use of the World's Land and Water Resources in the 21st Century
November 2017 - Analyzing potential trade-offs and synergies between Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) that are tied to land and water resources requires novel tools that can account for linkages across SDGs as well as between local analysis and global drivers. This article outlines the work of researchers at Purdue University to develop open-source applications accessible to a wide range of users.
Britain risks creating a $22.7-billion trade hole with its flawed "hard Brexit" plan
October 2017 - Hurtling towards a "hard Brexit," Britain is likely to leave the European Union in March 2019 without tariff-free access to the bloc's single market. And it looks like the UK is going to lose a lot if that happens, according to a study by global law firm Baker McKenzie and economic consultancy Oxford Economics.
Parliament debate debunks misconceptions on #biodiesel carbon savings and benefits
October 2017 - Ahead of key votes on the post-2020 EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) in the ITRE, ENVI and TRAN Committees of the European Parliament (EP), EU Biodiesel Chain held a debate in Strasbourg aimed at countering misperceptions on biofuels with latest scientific findings on the positive role of biodiesel production in decarbonizing transport and in agricultural sustainability.
Sustainable irrigation may harm other goals
October 2017 - Pursuing sustainable irrigation without significant irrigation efficiency gains could negatively impact environmental and development goals in many areas of the world, a new study has found.
How a group of Florida tomato growers could help derail NAFTA
October 2017 - Tony DiMare, a third-generation Florida tomato grower, has spent two decades contending with cheap Mexican imports, watching his neighbors abandon crops in their fields and sell off their farms when they couldn't match the price of incoming produce.
Russell Hillberry Continues Conversation on Borders and Their Human Impact
October 2017 - The Center for International Education at Washington and Lee University will host a lecture by Russell Hillberry, associate professor of agricultural economics at Purdue University, on Oct. 30 at 7 p.m. in the Atrium located in the Ruscio Center for Global Learning. The talk is free and open to the public
Update of the Customs Union Agreement (Turkish)
September 2017 - The Customs Union Agreement (GBA), which has been in force since 1996 between the Republic of Turkey and the EU, has made mutual industrial goods free to trade. The EU's main export product is industrial goods. There are two preferential trade agreements between Turkey and the EU.
An Analysis of the Possibility of Shanghai Cooperation Organization's Free Trade Area (Chinese)
September 2017 - The establishment of the FTA is one of the future cooperation directions of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. It will help to further enhance the level and scale of regional cooperation, strengthen the coordination of regional rules and build a platform for cooperation with Eurasian Economic Alliance. At present, the SCO FTA has almost all members of the WTO, political mutual trust is good, multilateral and bilateral cooperation mechanism is more complete, adequate construction funds and other favorable conditions, at the same time, also to a certain extent subject to trade structure imbalance , The difference between the level of tariffs, the region within a variety of international cooperation mechanism to contain, non-tariff barriers and other factors. In view of the current level of strength of member states, on the free trade area from the trade of goods to start, and gradually upgrade to deepen.
South Asia's greater integration in Asia
August 2017 - The regional integration and cooperation initiative in South Asia started with the formation of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) in 1985. SAARC includes Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, the Maldives, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
Purdue research team works to meet the United Nations' sustainable development goals
August 2017 - Thomas W. Hertel, Purdue University professor of agricultural economics, and his team aim to develop a multidisciplinary approach for managing the earth's unowned natural resources such as the oceans, atmosphere, and space, also known as the global commons, in order to establish an applied research consortium which will analyze scenarios and explore policy alternatives. These alternatives will promote responsible public and private investment, sustainable management of critical, shared natural resources, and collective action toward meeting the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals.
Artificial intelligence won't steal your slice, it'll grow the pie
August 2017 - In pop culture, AI is often associated with a terrifying rise of the machines and a dystopia in which only the fittest, handsomest humans survive. To wit: Facebook AI bots, "Bob" and "Alice," were quickly shut down after they started using their own language to communicate with each other. "Sizing the Prize," from PwC flips that image on its head and forecasts enormous economic impact from AI by 2030. With Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) data on the size of different economic sectors, the report forecasts global GDP will increase by 14% in 2030 as a result of the accelerating development and take-up of AI. That would mean an additional $15.7 trillion, with the greatest gains in China (up to a 26% boost of its GDP) and North America (up to a 14% GDP boost) - more than the current output of China and India combined.
Trade Winds Shifting
July 2017 - New patterns are disrupting global trade, altering relationships and reshaping international business practices.
SCO Habits: Facilitation and FTA are more favorable to Central Asian countries (Chinese)
June 2017 - According to the Hornsey, the economic impact of trade facilitation in the future SCO and every member country (including India and Pakistan) is analyzed by the model. The results show that, assuming that the import and export clearance time of each country is reduced on an existing basis 25%, then the overall GDP of the region will increase by $ 54 billion, the overall welfare increase of $ 48.5 billion, exports increased by $ 20 billion, imports increased by $ 19.8 billion. Central Asian countries and Pakistan have benefited more, with GDP growth, export and import growth exceeding China, Russia and India.
Economists gather at Purdue for the Global Trade Analysis Project Conference
June 2017 - WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. (WLFI) - People from around the world are at Purdue University to discuss and analyze the state of global economy.
Economists from Paris, Geneva, Ethiopa and other countries meet for landmark global trade meeting at Purdue
June 2017 - WEST LAFAYETTE - More than 225 leading economists and policy makers, including representatives from the World Trade Organization, various United Nations and government offices and other leading international institutions and universities, are convening at Purdue University for the 20th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis through Friday.
RCEP and its potential impact on textile and apparel trade
June 2017 - The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has the potential to be one of the most significant mega-FTAs in the world, both economically and politically. And as Dr Sheng Lu, assistant professor at the Department of Fashion and Apparel Studies at the University of Delaware explains, the implications for the textile and apparel trade are enormous.
Dilemma of Buddhist country, Learn from the warmth trying to survive on the balance between China and the United States (Japanese)
June 2017 - TPP, negotiations began in 2010, but ASEAN countries did not try to attend the United States wary. That's because they had a bitter experience that they had brought all the hard work earned by the Asian currency crisis that the American hedge fund in 1997 stormed. Malaysia was initially standing diagonally. Under such circumstances, only one country in Vietnam unexpectedly raised the name as the original member. It was a participating country not in America's mind.
More than 200 economists and policy advisers from around the world gather for landmark global trade meeting
May 2017 - For many people, the Great Recession of 2007-09 was an unwelcome revelation as to how interdependent global economies had become. The economic downturn in the United States triggered economic slowdowns in many countries. As The Economist noted in a 2009 article, "a downturn anywhere would become a downturn everywhere." Yet, that reality had long been recognized by leading economists and researchers. That's why many of them find more significance in the upcoming 25th anniversary of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), a collaboration of more than 15,000 researchers in 170 countries that revolutionized the analysis of trade policies and their global impact.
Purdue Global Trade Conference Drawing 200-Plus Economists
May 2017 - A global trade conference that Purdue University is hosting next month will attract more than 200 economists.
Should corn growers be nervous about Donald Trump?
April 2017 - There are a few sacred cows in midwestern politics - fried foods, state fairs, manufacturing jobs - but lately, the most untouchable of them has been ethanol: ensuring that the fuel made from midwestern corn continues to be pumped into cars around the country.
Newly released Journal of Global Economic Analysis provides rare open access to innovations in applied general equilibrium modeling
March 2017 - Purdue University's Thomas Hertel, a distinguished professor of agricultural economics, recently announced the publication of the Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Vol. 1, No. 2, a free resource that gives economic researchers, government officials and students invaluable insights based on a shared global database.
Audu Ogbeh: Taking The Giant Leap To Reposition Agricultural Sector
March 2017 - According to the Oxford Business Group report of 2016, the Agricultural sector in Nigeria is performing solidly well. The report states that the sector grew at the rate of 3.48% in the fourth quarter of 2015 and a full year of 3.72% well above general economic growth of 2.11%. Blessed with abundant land and water resources, Nigeria's agricultural sector has a high potential for growth, but this potential unfortunately has never been realized until recently.
Thousands of pollution deaths worldwide linked to western consumers - study
March 2017 - Study shows extent to which US and western European demand for clothes, toys and mobile phones contributes to air pollution in developing countries
Editorial with the foot to rule the country (Chinese)
March 2017 - President Tsai has announced that this year's first task is to fight the economy, the Executive Yuan will be proposed in this month about 800 billion scale "forward-looking infrastructure projects", hoping to expand domestic demand, driving economic momentum. This policy has caused a high degree of interest in various counties and cities, all actively reported local construction programs to snatch budget cake. Before the approval of the infrastructure project in the prefectural government, it would definitely be possible to increase the multiplier effect that the project was expected to play if the principal was to replace the word "rule by country"
Britain and the United States have "breach of contract" test the world economic order (Chinese)
March 2017 - US President Trump on the first day of his administration to sign an administrative order, announced the withdrawal of the TPP agreement, while the British Prime Minister Mei in the lower house to celebrate the removal of the European mandate. The two news that is sufficient to occupy the headlines actually have their common denominator, that is, the breach of contract between Britain and the United States is to overthrow the commitment of the former government to international law in the regional economic agreement (RTA).
TPP12 Vs TPP11: Gainers And Losers - Analysis
February 2017 - The Trans-Pacific Partnership among 12 nations (TPP12) was thrown into disarray after President Donald Trump pulled the United States, the largest economy in the grouping, out of what was to be a landmark trade deal. Presently, a number of remaining TPP members including Australia, New Zealand, Chile and Singapore are making the case for a trade pact without the US, dubbed TPP11 or "TPP 12 minus one".
How Purdue is Doing Cover Crop Research Project
February 2017 - Wally Tyner, a professor in Purdue's Department of Agricultural Economics, said he has his work cut out for him exploring the economics of cover crops. There are so many variables and so little history. The study is a collaborative effort with the Farm Foundation.
Chair of the Scientific Council goes to Prof. Dr. Brockmeier (German)
January 2017 - Science Council elects Prof. Dr. Martina Brockmeier as chairman. As of 1 February 2017, the agricultural economist of the University of Hohenheim will be responsible for the highest-level advisory council for federal and state governments on science issues.

2016 (29)

Almost half C02 produced in making cement is absorbed as structures age: Reports
December 2016 - Three new studies illuminate the sheer complexity of the aspect of climate science known as the carbon cycle − how carbon dioxide gets into the atmosphere and out again.
Nearly 5 Million U.S. Jobs Depend on Trade With Mexico
December 2016 - Arguments that policies such as NAFTA have killed American manufacturing jobs often ignore the many other American jobs that such deals create and support.
Stronger Relationship Between Mexico And The United States Despite Of Governance Changes, Expected
December 2016 - The United States and Mexico shared a maritime and land border in North America. They have always been an allied despite facing trials and changes of government. The countries are becoming stronger and more triumphant working together.
Free trade means more investments and increased mobility
December 2016 - Free trade means giving people and private enterprises the freedom to produce more commodities that consumers demand at certain prices. These producers then leave sectors and areas where expected returns and other gains are lower if not dwindling.
Russian Federation proposes date for oil production control committee meeting
December 2016 - Oil extended the longest winning streak in more than four months before Opec and other producing nations start reducing output to stabilise the market.
Model predicts elimination of GMO crops would cause hike in greenhouse gas emissions
November 2016 - WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. - A global ban on genetically modified crops would raise food prices and add the equivalent of nearly a billion tons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, a study by researchers from Purdue University shows.
Tyner named fellow from the American Association for the Advancement of Science
November 2016 - Eight Purdue University professors, including GTAP's own Wally Tyner, have been awarded the distinction of fellow from the American Association for the Advancement of Science, the world's largest general scientific society. The professors are being honored for their efforts toward advancing science applications that are deemed scientifically or socially distinguished. *Wallace E. Tyner, James & Lois Ackerman Professor of Agricultural Economics in the College of Agriculture - For distinguished contributions in agricultural and energy economics and research at the interface of the two areas, especially biofuels economics and policy.
How would end of NAFTA affect US apparel industry?
November 2016 - President-elect Donald Trump has made no secret of his dislike of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between the US, Mexico and Canada. But far from bringing back 'Made in USA'; manufacturing, withdrawing from the pact would hurt US textile exports and do little to curb apparel imports, according to an analysis by Dr Sheng Lu, assistant professor at the Department of Fashion and Apparel Studies at the University of Delaware.
Improving the analytical framework to accurately predict China 's grain demand (Chinese)
November 2016 - China as a high-income development stage is from the stage of high-income development, from the late urbanization to the maturity of urbanization, from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture transformation of the population, how to meet the whole society on the growing demand for food, Is a major topic of great concern to the international community and a core issue of China's agricultural policy in the future. China Economic Times today published a set of research reports, respectively, from the improvement of forecasting model and analysis framework to estimate the peak value of China's total food consumption, to determine the peak of China's per capita food demand and effective response to changes in food demand and the arrival of peak Analysis and policy recommendations, please readers attention.
Walloon rejection of CETA, new hitch for free trade (French)
October 2016 - As Heads of State of Canada and European Union member states were about to meet in Brussels on 27 October to adopt the text of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), more often referred to as the acronym CETA), two Belgian regional parliaments have just vetoed them. Will this decision be enough to bury this project? ? Nothing is less sure. A new study presented to the Parliament of Wallonia nevertheless sharpens the economic arguments of the opponents by identifying, in figures, its unique beneficiaries: investors.
Purdue professor speaks at Vatican conference on economics and society
September 2016 - Purdue agricultural economist Dominique van der Mensbrugghe spoke Sept. 21 at a conference on economics and inequality hosted by the Vatican. He spoke alongside Nobel Prize winner Angus Deaton and professor Jean-Paul Fitoussi of Rome's LUISS Guido Carli University in the Vatican's Courtyard of the Gentiles.
Biodiesel's ILUC emissions further reduced in Purdue modeling
September 2016 - Biomass-based fuels present a tremendous opportunity to transition toward a more sustainable mix of renewable energy. This was a key theme of an alternative fuels workshop hosted Sept. 14 by the U.S. DOE in Macon, Georgia. The workshop examined the sustainability of feedstocks like soybean oil, which can be used to make biodiesel or alternative jet fuel.
CETA: trade in the service of the common good or Pangloss to the balance of capital? (French)
September 2016 - A study by Pierre Kohler and Servaas Storm (1) deconstructs the "scientific" hypotheses and the Panglossian account of the promoters of CETA, which will liberalize our societies far beyond mere commerce. In support of this, it explains why only the holders of capital will benefit from this agreement, even though it will weaken employment, wages and economic growth in Europe.
Understanding U.S.-Mexico Economic Ties
September 2016 - The impact of trade and globalization on the average American has become a core issue in this year's elections. We have heard measured, well-founded and serious critiques on the handling of issues like currency manipulation and preparing our workforce for participation in the global economy, but the conversation has also drawn many passionate and visceral responses, highlighting the intensity with which citizens feel the impact of economic change. Due to campaign rhetoric, Mexico has come to symbolize much of the U.S. encounter with globalization. Given that Mexico is the United States' second largest export market, third largest overall trading partner, and the top country of origin for immigrants living in the country, this is understandable. Nonetheless, having become a top tier issue in the presidential elections, it is more important than ever that Americans have a clear and up-to-date understanding of Mexico and, in particular, the U.S.-Mexico economic relationship.
The Impact of Sino - Korea FTA on Japan 's Economy (Chinese)
August 2016 - Using the GTAP model to simulate the impact of China and South Korea FTA on Japan's economy, it can be seen that the Chinese and Korean FTAs ​​have not yet made a small economic impact, although the tariff reductions between China and South Korea are not large.
Big Canadian GDP boost from unilateral trade liberalization: study
August 2016 - Provided the Canada-EU trade agreement and the Trans-Pacific Partnership are brought into force and the Liberal government pursues bilateral negotiations with China - all of which, it needs to be said, are very far from certain - Canada would have free trade with its 13 biggest trading partners.
A global disaster: the British off the European butterfly effect, a text to understand the life of the European Union (Chinese)
June 2016 - June 23 this year, the United Kingdom will withdraw from the EU held a referendum. At present, the latest survey results show that the proportion of people supporting the return of Europe more than 40%, and support the proportion of stay in Europe comparable, the risk of retreat Europe can not be ignored. Although the retreat of the European public is the political game, rational analysis of retreat regardless of the United Kingdom, the European Union or the world will be a disaster, continue to stay in Europe is a win-win choice. However, the event of continuous fermentation is bound to repeatedly impact on the global market, if self-defeating, its negative impact can not be imagined.
The EU-West Africa Economic Partnership Agreement is absurd and criminal (French)
May 2016 - In the aftermath of the independence of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), particularly the 16 West African States (WA) - the 15 Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and Mauritania - all former colonies (except Liberia), the EU maintained non-reciprocal trade preferences allowing them to export 97% of their agricultural products and 100% of their industrial products taxing their imports from the EU in the framework of broad cooperation agreements, known as the Lomé Conventions, from 1975 to 2000. But the 9 Latin American states (LA) exporting bananas to the EU - Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala, Nicaragua and Panama - continued the EU in the GATT first in 1993 and then in the WTO from its creation in 1995, when the EU was sentenced three times. The reason: these developing countries (DCs) had to pay customs duty (DD) to the EU while importing zero-denominated bananas from ACP countries (Africa, Caribbean and Pacific), which was contrary to the principle of non-discrimination in the WTO. According to this principle, if developed countries can grant non-reciprocal trade preferences to developing countries, they can not discriminate according to a geographical criterion, but they can do so according to a criterion of level of development. Hence the implementation of the EU's bilateral "Generalized System of Preferences" (GSP) since 1971 for developing countries - which benefit from DDs about 30% lower on average than the so-called " favored "(MFN) applied to developed countries - and duty-free and quota free (DFQF) applied to" Least Developed Countries "(LDCs) since the 2001 Everything but Arms (EBA) Decision.
The welfare impacts of foreign agricultural investment in Sub-Saharan Africa
May 2016 - The increasing involvement of foreign investors in Sub-Saharan Africa's agricultural sector, especially through the so-called "land grabbing" phenomenon, has stirred passionate debates among analysts, policymakers, and stakeholders alike. Host countries hope that foreign agricultural investment will provide employment opportunities leading to increased purchasing power and tax revenues from payroll and eventually on profits. From these investments, host countries also expect added benefits such as enhanced skills, new or improved infrastructure, and faster technology transfer. However, one important concern is that foreign agricultural investment may worsen the problem of food insecurity in SSA by raising food prices and increasing food imports. Likewise, some fear that agricultural investment leading to changes in factor input use may reduce the competitiveness of domestic sectors such as food and services. Consequently, is foreign agricultural investment in SSA something to fear or to hope for?
USITC Releases Report on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Agreement
April 2016 - On May 19, 2016, the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) released its report assessing the likely impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Agreement that the United States has negotiated with Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam. The USITC's report, Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement: Likely Impact on the U.S. Economy and on Specific Industry Sectors, provides an assessment of the likely impact of the Agreement on the U.S. economy as a whole and on specific industry sectors and the interests of U.S. consumers, as requested by the U.S. Trade Representative and required by the Bipartisan Congressional Trade Priorities and Accountability Act of 2015. The report's quantitative assessment relies on a GTAP-based dynamic general equilibrium model.
Eliminating GMOs would raise food prices
March 2016 - WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. - If genetically modified organisms in the United States were banned, consumers could expect higher food prices. There would also be a significant boost in greenhouse gas emissions due to land use change and major loss of forest and pasture land, according to a recent Purdue University study.
Research assesses agriculture without GMOs
March 2016 - WEST LAFAYETTE, INDIANA, U.S. - Researchers at Purdue University have completed a study that assesses the benefits of bioengineered organisms in farming and the food supply. The study's conclusions note the extreme measure of eliminating bioengineered organisms would lead to higher food prices, a boost in greenhouse gas emissions and a major loss of forest and pastureland.
TPP for what a TPP, how many trillions of dollars are damaged (Japanese)
February 2016 - Indeed, if a performer named Hitoshi Matsumoto opposed a social problem, why can only say such bad things?
Global Trade Analysis Project studying climate change
February 2016 - Mark Dorenkamp from Brownfield Ag News spoke with Tom Hertel about GTAP, the endeavor he founded in 1993.
Study: Eliminating GMOs would take toll on environment, economies
February 2016 - The main objective of this study was to evaluate what would be the economic and environmental consequences of losing the GMO traits in the U.S. for the major crops of corn, soybeans and cotton. The first step was to obtain from the literature a range of estimates of the yield losses if we move away from GMO traits in the U.S. The second step was to introduce the yield losses obtained in the first step into a well known CGE model, GTAP-BIO, to quantify the land use and economic impacts of banning GMO traits in the U.S.
Market integration could help protect poor from climate-related food insecurity
February 2016 - Agricultural Communication Service writer Natalie van Hoose talked with GTAP's very own Thomas Hertel about his talk, "The Underlying Climate Mechanisms of International Food Trade," part of the "Climate Change and Agriculture: Revisiting the Evidence and Potential Solutions" symposium.
Iran's oil is for sale: Who benefits, who loses?
February 2016 - An Aljazeera opinion, authored by GTAP members, expanding on a paper that uses the GTAP Data Base.
Studies of TPP: Which Is Credible?
January 2016 - After listening to conflicting advice from his economists, President Harry S. Truman famously demanded to be briefed by a one-handed economist. And to the average citizen seeking enlightenment on the likely impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on the US economy, it must be similarly frustrating. On the one hand, the Peterson Institute just released a study by Peter A. Petri and Michael G. Plummer (2016) (PP) estimating that the TPP would raise US real incomes by 2030 by 0.5 percent, with percentage gains to labor that would be slightly higher than those to capital. On the other hand, the Global Development and Environment Institute (GDAE) at Tufts University has released a study by Jeronim Capaldo et al. (2016), which predicts that the TPP would reduce US income by 0.5 percent, reduce employment by almost half a million jobs, and increase income inequality. Most news reports, in an effort to be even handed, have reported the results of both studies, more or less treating them as equals.
TPP Japan's GDP down 0.12% (Japanese)
January 2016 - The Global Development Environment Institute (GDAE) of Tufts University in Massachusetts State has analyzed the impact of the Pacific Rim Partnership Agreement (TPP) recently, analyzing the influence of the Pacific Rim Partnership Agreement (TPP), and the Japanese gross domestic product (GDP) is 0 · It announced a survey report that estimated that the employment of 74,000 people will be lost, down 12%.

2015 (13)

Re-trial calculation of influence of TPP whose government's intention is too clear (Japanese)
December 2015 - On December 24, the Cabinet Office announced the economic effect analysis of the TPP Agreement. Regarding the impact on agricultural, forestry and fishery products, although the production price will decrease by 130 billion yen due to price reduction due to the tariff reduction, because the income that can be reproduced is secured by taking domestic measures, domestic production volume It is said to be maintained. It is a trial calculation that there is no influence on self-sufficiency rate. Is it really such a minor influence on this? , Skepticism has emerged that there is no persuasive power to maintain the production amount although prices drop due to imported agricultural products.
Analysis on the Competitiveness of China 's Photovoltaic Industry and Its Path Selection (Chinese)
November 2015 - China's photovoltaic industry has gone from the slow - fast - explosion - stagnation - rising development process, the photovoltaic industry into a "high-end industry value chain low-end" trap. To promote China's photovoltaic enterprise technology innovation, a breakthrough low-end lock, embedded in the global high-end value chain an important way.
TPP impact of China's industrial deduction: textile and garment industry or negative growth (Chinese)
October 2015 - On 5 October, the Transpacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) reached a basic agreement. Although the agreement from the implementation to the implementation of the landing, it will take time, but TPP in the long-term impact on the development of China's industry worthy of attention.
TPP, AEC and 5 impact on the Vietnamese economy (Vietnamese)
September 2015 - Being part of TPP and AEC will boost Vietnam's real GDP growth at the fastest rate, driven by growth in consumption and investment. Thanks to the comprehensive agreement on the removal of tariffs and non-tariff barriers, Vietnam's GDP may increase by 1.32% ...
Vietnam to Benefit Most from AEC and TPP
September 2015 - Vietnam will gain the most substantial gross domestic product (GDP) increase in percentage terms of any other economy upon implementation of the ASEAN Economy Community (AEC) and Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in almost all scenarios projected by the Vietnam Institute for Economy and Policy Research (VEPR). The VEPR report was based on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) databases, giving the first quantitative assessment of the impact of the AEC and TPP on Vietnam. VEPR created six scenarios from the data.
Purdue Ag Research Spotlight, Farzad Taheripour
August 2015 - The Ag Research Spotlight shines each month on an individual whose work reflects our commitment to the six strategic themes that guide Agricultural Research at Purdue.
Vietnam Center for Economic and Policy Research (VEPR)'s Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Model Predicts 1.3% Growth in Real GDP
June 2015 - GTAP is the standard approach to modeling gains from trade agreements - The standard GTAP model is a multi-region, multi-sector, computable general equilibrium model, with perfect competition and constant returns to scale. This was developed over the last 25 years or so by economists who were frustrated with the limitations of the previous CGE models. This is made possible by a comprehensive global data base describing bilateral trade patterns, production, consumption and intermediate use of commodities. The latest date extends only to 2007 having been released in March 2012 however.
VEPR: Join TPP, Vietnam will benefit the most (Vietnamese)
May 2015 - (NDH) Vietnam will benefit most from the 12 countries negotiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement in terms of changes in GDP and social welfare. However, due to the small size of Vietnam's economy, absolute growth is not equal to large countries.
A weighting game, Pacific trade talks expose the limits of economic modelling
May 2015 - THE Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a putative trade agreement, would ease commerce between America, Japan and ten other countries that between them account for two-fifths of global GDP. But how beneficial would it be to these economies? Advocates claim it would boost their output by nearly $300 billion in a decade. Critics say it would make little or no difference.
Purdue releases new version of global economic database
May 2015 - The Center for Global Trade Analysis based at Purdue University released the latest version of its GTAP Data Base of worldwide economic transactions Tuesday (May19).
China and South Korea FTA impact of the Ministry of Economy: Taiwan's GDP will drop 0.15% (Chinese)
April 2015 - Ministry of Economic Affairs announced on the 10th China and South Korea FTA assessment report, estimated that if China and South Korea to complete the longest 20-year tariff reduction, will lead to Taiwan's real GDP will decline 0.15%, and caused up to 180 billion Taiwan dollars exports were replaced. The Ministry of Economic Affairs said that although the short term will not immediately have a huge impact, but the medium and long term will have a certain degree of impact, as in the past controversial annual loss of 650 billion yuan output value, said the Industry Bureau, "never evaluated 650 billion , And said the assessment approach tends to be pragmatic, can not be generalized.
Economic models provide insights into global sustainability challenges
March 2015 - Using models that blend global economics, geography, ecology and environmental sciences is essential to understanding how changes in trade and natural systems in one part of the world affect those in another, a review concludes.
Food poverty's impact on agriculture
January 2015 - A world perspective on the short and long-run impacts of food price changes on poverty will be up for discussion at a major international economics conference in Rotorua next month.

2014 (8)

Economic effects of the Syrian war and the spread of the Islamic state on the Levant
December 2014 - World Bank working paper using GTAP data and cited by the Financial Times and Al Jazeera
Congress To Nutritionists: Don't Talk About The Environment
December 2014 - "A government-appointed group of top nutrition experts, assigned to lay the scientific groundwork for a new version of the nation's dietary guidelines, decided earlier this year to collect data on the environmental implication of different food choices."
The 26th "value added trade" (Japanese)
December 2014 - According to research on 'value added trade' (value added export), which has attracted wide attention internationally, mainly by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the World Trade Organization (WTO), in recent years, The role played is greater than previously thought.
Study: Real-world data casts grave doubt on land use models
November 2014 - A comprehensive analysis of real-world land use data recently released by Iowa State University raises serious doubts and concerns about the reliability and accuracy of economic models used by regulatory agencies to penalize ethanol for purported "indirect land use changes," or ILUC. The new report found that farmers around the world have responded to higher crop prices in the past decade mainly by using existing land resources more efficiently-not by converting forest and grassland into cropland.
USDA TPP Study Shows Smaller Hit On Japan Ag Sector Than Tokyo Predicts
November 2014 - "A new study by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) concludes that the elimination of all tariffs on farm goods under a Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement would be less damaging to Japan's agriculture industry than the Japanese government has predicted, due to a range of factors."
Are Genetically Modified Crops Good for Sub-Saharan Africa? An Overview
June 2014 - USA RIVER, TANZANIA - Sebastian Mushi, or "Seba," as he is known around here, owns an agricultural business in Usa River, Tanzania. In his bare-bones shopfront he stocks chemical fertilizers, pesticide sprays, and an assortment of maize and rice seeds. Perched comfortably on a bag of maize is Seba's friend and rice farmer, Ramadan. While he waits for his phone to charge, Rama recounts how he took Seba's advice to use a combination of hybrid seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides for his rice paddies and watched his farm's productivity bloom this season. Pleased with the profitable results, Rama has shared his success story with many other farmers who have since followed suit.
Western scholars how to see China's "accession to the WTO" for more than a decade (Chinese)
January 2014 - December 11, 2001, China formally joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) that "accession" to become a member of the world economy family. Over the past decade, China's foreign trade and economic development have made significant progress and achievements under the WTO framework. At the same time, the world economy has become more diversified because of China's active participation. China's "accession to the WTO" this issue, attracting domestic and foreign people from all walks of life attention and research. Various organizations put China into the key research objects, various levels of journals to open up new columns to publish with China's "WTO" and the Chinese economy-related articles and writings, different disciplines of scholars are also varying degrees involved in this Research areas.

2013 (4)

We dream of ash: How will local nuclear conflict end for humanity? (Russian)
December 2013 - Mass hunger will be the main consequence of any local nuclear conflict on Earth. This conclusion was reached by researchers from the international organization "Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War" and its American branch "Physicians for Social Responsibility". According to the model they built, the exchange of nuclear strikes between India and Pakistan will lead to a significant reduction in the volume of crop cultivation; as a result, at least two billion people will remain without food. Hunger will be accompanied by large-scale epidemics that will endanger the death of several hundred million more people.
Reduce GDP by 1.3 trillion yen Professor Suzuki's TPP impact estimate (Japanese)
June 2013 - In addition to the decline in production of agriculture and related industries due to the elimination of tariffs, if the inclusion of the loss of employment, TPP (Pacific Rim Partnership Agreement) will estimate that Japan's GDP (Gross Domestic Product) will decrease by 1.3 trillion yen by the University of Tokyo's Suzuki Norihiro Laboratory announced. The government estimates that the GDP will increase by 3.1 trillion yen by TPP, but in addition to making unrealistic assumption that domestic products can compete with cheap imported livestock products, farmers can freely It is based on the premise that you can get jobs such as industry. Professor Suzuki stressed that these problems are corrected and tried, "TPP will impair Japan's national interest."
There is a non-tariff barrier in the agricultural sector, one of which is traceability (Japanese)
May 2013 - According to the first report on the influence of university teachers' association seeking immediate withdrawal from TPP participation negotiations, regarding the influence on Hokkaido agriculture, "Currently, wheat, peanut, potatoes, beans and so on are copyrighted Although it is being done, it is expected that Wheat, Tenryu and Potato starch will be replaced by 100% Overseas Production by participating in TPP "," Because of this, due to the decline of the earth's power and chain disorder, other transport crops It is pointed out that the production will be impossible and the influence will further expand.
Growth effect estimation of TPP (Japanese)
March 2013 - Estimating the effect of TPP on GDP is done in various ways. The best known are Kenichi Kawasaki and a visiting chief scientist at the Economic and Social Research Institute of the Cabinet Office in the activities as a consulting and fellow of RIETI using a macroeconomic model called the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model As shown in Fig. According to it, by participating in the TPP, real GDP will increase by 2.4 to 3.2 trillion yen, the ratio of GDP to 0.48 to 0.65% (National Strategy Office, 2010; Kawasaki, 2011). According to Petri and Plummer (2012) which used a model developed by further adopting foreign direct investment etc. in the GTAP model, when Japan and South Korea participate in TPP, Japan's GDP in 2020 does not participate It is about 95.5 billion dollars (about 9 trillion yen), which is about 2% larger than that.

2012 (6)

Cutting livestock greenhouse gases requires effort from rich and poor countries
November 2012 - "Regulating livestock greenhouse gas emissions could shift livestock production to unregulated, less developed countries unless those poorer nations can be enticed to preserve their forested lands, according to a Purdue University economic study."
Global trade program celebrates 20-year anniversary
October 2012 - "A Purdue University-based program that helps researchers and policymakers analyze international trade is turning 20 years old. The Global Trade Analysis Project maintains data on more than 948,000 bilateral trade flows linking 130 economies around the world. GTAP is housed in Purdue's Department of Agricultural Economics."
Climate Change to Affect Corn Prices, Study Says
April 2012 - "Researchers have found that climate change is likely to have far greater influence on the volatility of corn prices over the next three decades than factors that recently have been blamed for price swings - like oil prices, trade policies and government biofuel mandates. The new study, published on Sunday in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggests that unless farmers develop more heat-tolerant corn varieties or gradually move corn production from the United States into Canada, frequent heat waves will cause sharp price spikes. Noah S. Diffenbaugh, a climate scientist at Stanford and an author of the study, said he was surprised by the notable effect of climate change on price volatility for corn, the country's largest crop. "I really thought climate would be a minor player before we did this analysis," Professor Diffenbaugh said. "We're looking at a period over the next three decades or so of moderate global warming, after all."
Database of global economic information is expanded
March 2012 - "A database of worldwide economic information used to evaluate trade agreements between nations has been expanded to include data from 15 more countries in an updated version released by Purdue University. The Global Trade Analysis Project, a global network of researchers and policy-makers who analyze international policy issues, includes data on bilateral trade patterns and production, consumption and intermediate use of commodities and services. It is used by governments, international institutions, the private sector and economists at universities..."
Free trade and protectionism: the real debate is launched, in "Le Monde Economie" (French)
March 2012 - Mass hunger will be the main consequence of any local nuclear conflict on Earth. This conclusion was reached by researchers from the international organization "Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War" and its American branch "Physicians for Social Responsibility". According to the model they built, the exchange of nuclear strikes between India and Pakistan will lead to a significant reduction in the volume of crop cultivation; as a result, at least two billion people will remain without food. Hunger will be accompanied by large-scale epidemics that will endanger the death of several hundred million more people.
Is Canada's economy really dependent on global trade?
January 2012 - Currency traders love the monthly import and export data, which provide an excellent guide of how much demand exists for dollars, euros, yen, francs and the like. But for anyone seeking a more precise understanding of the dynamics of international trade, the data compiled by customs agents are about as about as relevant to a modern economy as carbon paper.

2011 (2)

Agriculture and Long Run Sustainability
October 2011 - "For the past 200 years, ever since Thomas Malthus published his Essay on the Principle of Population, big thinkers have been wondering whether Earth-dwellers will eventually run out of food. Today, a global group of scientists released a fresh look at the question. They add a different, environmental twist to it. Can we feed the world without destroying the environment? What we have instead of a dictator is the global marketplace, setting prices for land, corn, meat, and everything else. Those prices drive decisions by farmers. But Thomas Hertel, an economist at Purdue University, says those markets can help solve our planetary problem - especially if we step in to make those markets work better..."
Carbon Counters
February 2011 - January marked the start of California's controversial Low Carbon Fuel Standard program, a regulatory measure designed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the state's transportation sector by 16 million metric tons in 2020. The specifics of the program are far from finalized, however. California's Air Resources Board is currently defending its policy in lawsuits filed in both federal and civil courts while simultaneously convening its regular Expert Working Group hearings to attempt to settle contentious issues related to the policy. Most notable for ethanol producers is the issue of CARB's calculation for indirect land use changes (ILUC) related to the production of their fuel, which initially resulted in a carbon intensity rating for ethanol that was higher than gasoline. As of late January, early effects of this highly unrealistic rating on the ethanol market in California were difficult to discern, but ethanol producers and lobby groups alike are certain that if the rating is left unchanged it could spell disaster for the industry.

2010 (3)

Europe finds politics and biofuels don't mix
July 2010 - BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The messages are tense, angry, cajoling. Written between 2008 and January 2010 and sent between lobbyists, scientists and high-ranking European civil servants, they hint at the intense emotions in the debate over one of Europe's most contentious environmental issues: the use of biofuels, long touted as an alternative to carbon-emitting petroleum.
Purdue analysis cuts ethanol greenhouse gas emission estimates
April 2010 - evisions to a Purdue University economic analysis have cut about 10 percent of the total emissions expected from an increase in corn ethanol production. The findings, released in a report to the U.S. Department of Energy's Argonne National Laboratory, show that ethanol could be a somewhat better option than previously thought for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Wally Tyner, a Purdue agricultural economist and the report's lead author, said revisions to the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model better reflect market conditions and land productivity than a 2009 report that showed corn ethanol wouldn't significantly lower greenhouse gas emissions over gasoline.
Biofuel from maize would lead to more greenhouse gases (French)
March 2010 - Presented a time as an alternative to oil for transport, biofuels are finding it increasingly difficult to keep their promises. Last disappointment in date, the ethanol produced corn. Indeed, US scientists have demonstrated that by integrating indirect emissions from new maize crops, bioethanol loses much of its interest.

2009 (2)

Climate Change Could Deepen Poverty In Developing Countries, Study Finds
August 2009 - Urban workers could suffer most from climate change as the cost of food drives them into poverty, according to a new study that quantifies the effects of climate on the world's poor populations. Researchers examined the potential economic influence of adverse climate events, such as heat waves, drought and heavy rains, on those in 16 developing countries. Urban workers in Bangladesh, Mexico and Zambia were found to be the most at risk.
Energizing Biofuel
May 2009 - The Obama administration has given the biofuels industry a major boost. It's providing the agro-energy industry with nearly three quarters of a billion dollars and proposing new rules to help accelerate development of advanced fuels. Host Steve Curwood talks with Jim Lane, publisher and editor of BioFuels Digest about the future of biofuels.

2008 (1)

Make good use of Vietnam FTA layout global (Chinese)
December 2008 - Vietnam since the late 1980s to reform and opening up the economy in recent years, economic performance has been paid a beautiful report card. (WTO), joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) on January 11, 2007, and became a popular target for countries to engage in FTA or regional trade agreements (RTA).

2007 (1)

How did national policy institutes imitate chaebol? (Korean)
May 2007 - On April 30, 11 national research institutes including the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) jointly announced the analysis of the economic effect of the Korea-US FTA, followed by the relay contribution of the Democratic Labor Party's "Korea-US FTA Impact Assessment Team" is. Of course, it is the nature of 'rebuttal'.

2005 (2)

Poverty and the WTO: Impacts of the Doha Development Agenda
December 2005 - "During the 2004/2005 academic year, Thomas Hertel was on sabbatical with the International Trade Research Group of the World Bank during which time he directed a major international research project aimed at analyzing the poverty impacts of the prospective Doha Development Agenda (DDA) currently under negotiation at the WTO in Geneva. This involved several global analyses based on the GTAP framework. It also linked these global analyses to a dozen country case studies conducted by research teams in Asia, Africa and Latin America. The project showed that previous estimates of the likely poverty reductions were likely overstated, but more importantly, it highlighted ways in which the prospective DDA could be made more poverty friendly. Dr. Hertel was called upon to present this work in Geneva, Paris, Brussels, Mozambique, South Africa, Brazil and Washington, D.C. His two trips to Geneva also involved informal discussions with lead trade negotiators in the WTO. The ensuing book will be published in early December-just before the Hong Kong Ministerial of the WTO. It was also featured prominently on November 16 in the Financial Times of London.
Weighed in the balance
December 2005 - The Doha round of world trade negotiations was supposed to lift many millions out of poverty. It looks unlikely to do so. Launched in a spirit of global solidarity two months after the terrorist attacks of September 11th 2001, the Doha round of global trade talks has always been billed as being about more than just trade. Its official title is the "Doha Development Agenda". Its purpose, as Tony Blair recently put it, is "to create the conditions in which millions of people will have a chance to escape poverty". Such lofty aspirations are sure to be given voice often in Hong Kong this week, when the world's trade ministers meet with the aim of reviving the flagging negotiations. Whether the Doha round will live up to those aspirations is less certain. This is not only because the talks are stalled. Perhaps more important, the benefits of the round to the world's poorest people have anyway been overstated. And most important of all, neither developed nor developing countries have been ambitious enough to seek the degree of trade liberalisation needed to help the poorest..."