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GTAP Events: 11th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis: Organized Sessions

The following organized sessions have been accepted into the conference.

Integration of micro data information in CGE models
Organized by: Stefan Boeters

There are several fields in CGE modelling where micro data is used to complement and enhance national account data for getting a ritcher and more comprehensive picture of the issue at hand: poverty analysis, labour market reform, consumption patterns.

Heterogeneous Labour Markets in a Microsimulation-AGE Model: Application to Welfare Reform in Germany
Presented by: Boeters, Stefan

The Effects of DR-CAFTA in Nicaragua: A CGE-Microsimulation Model for Poverty and Inequality Analysis
Presented by: Colombo, Giulia

Welfare Impact of External Balance in Pakistan: A CGE-microsimulation Analysis
Presented by: Ahmed, Vaqar

Analysis of African Countries: Session II
Organized by: Badri Narayanan

This session consists of two papers that analyze the impacts of economic partnership agreements on some African countries, and one about preferential trade agreements between some African countries and EU.

Breaking down the Poverty and Growth effects of economic policy package: A Double-Calibration Analysis for Cameroun using Microsimulation CGE Model
Presented by: Emini, Christian Arnault

Economic and Social Impacts of the Prospective EU-ECOWAS Economic Partnership Agreements: The Evidence from Cote D’Ivoire
Presented by: Youssouf, Kone

Preferential Trade Agreements Central African-European Union: Stumbling or Building Blocks? A General Equilibrium Approach
Presented by: Ngeleza, Guyslain

Agricultural Price Distortions, Inequality and Poverty: National CGE Studies
Organized by: Ernesto Valenzuela

Government interventions alter price incentives to agricultural production. Interventions can be direct agricultural policies or import protection schemes in non-agricultural production. Given that agriculture represent the main production activity for the vast majority of poor, understanding how those policies alter poverty levels and in general the distribution of income can shed light on the political economy forces behind policy intervention.

Economic and Poverty Impacts of Agricultural Price Distortions in China
Presented by: Zhai, Fan

Global Trade Liberalization, Poverty and Inequality in the Philippines
Presented by: Corong, Erwin

The Impact of Global and Domestic Trade Liberalization on Poverty and Inequality in Argentina
Presented by: Diaz-Bonilla, Eugenio

Would World Agricultural Trade Liberalization Help the Poor of Brazil?
Presented by: Ferreira-Filho, Joaquim Bento

Global trade policies, Inequality and Poverty
Organized by: Kym Anderson

Agricultural producers face price incentives that have been distorted by government policies at home and abroad, and by direct agricultural policies as well as indirectly by import protection and the like for producers of non-agricultural tradables. Understanding how those policies alter the distribution of income can shed light on the political economy forces behind their introduction and maintenance. Such analysis can also show how those policies affect income inequality and poverty. The expectation is that in the long run distortionary policies reduce economic growth and thereby contribute to poverty, but their impact is less obvious in a comparative static, short-run sense. True, farm earnings and wages of unskilled labor would tend to rise with agricultural prices, but so too would the cost of food consumption. Whether the earnings net of taxes of wage-earners and even some farmers who are net buyers of food go up more than their expenditures is a question that can only be answered empirically (Winters, McCulloch and McKay 2004). The need for such answers is clear from the controversies that arise when economic institutions whose mandate it to reduce global poverty clash with civil society groups who seek the same outcome (Kanbur 2001).

Global economic effects of agricultural and trade policies: new Linkage Model results
Presented by: Valenzuela, Ernesto

Global Income Distribution and Poverty in the Absence of Agricultural Distortions
Presented by: Medvedev, Denis

Using a CGE Model as an Instrument to Measure Policy Bias: The Relative Impact of Policy Regimes on Incentives in Ethiopia
Presented by: Robinson, Sherman

Modeling Global Effects of Biofuel Development and Production
Organized by: Utpal Vasavada

An expansion of biofuel production has led to a significant diversion of crops such as corn, soybeans and others from livestock feeds to ethanol. Similar situation has been occurring in Brazil as more sugar cane is being produced for sugar-based ethanol. Economists have found very quickly that most existing agricultural models lacked the necessary components and data to be useful. This exposed a need to improve the current analytical modeling frameworks and data systems to examine biofuels.

Economy–wide implications of biomass to replace crude oil in the U.S.: Why the source of biomass matters?
Presented by: Winston, Ashley

Energy efficiency, environmental benefits and cost competitiveness of EU biofuels
Presented by: Bureau, Christophe

Modeling the Global Economic and Environmental Implications of a Biobased Economy
Presented by: Fernandez-Cornejo, Jorge

Tariff-line Analysis
Organized by: Thomas Hertel

Given that most of the policy decisions and trade negotiations take place at tariff-line level, it is imperative to overcome the aggregation bias of the CGE models used for trade policy analysis. This session is an earnest step towards this direction. There are three papers in this session. The first presentation introduces the new TASTE database that is built based on MacMAP database comprising data at HS6 level. The second one explains the importance of analysing trade liberalisation at product-level. The third paper illustrates the usefulness of linking PE with GE, by making use of MacMAP and GTAP, focussing on textile/apparel sectors in developing countries.

A Nested PE/GE Model for GTAP: Simulating the Disaggregated Impacts of the Doha Development Agenda on Textile and Apparel Sectors in Developing Countries
Presented by: Narayanan, Badri

A TASTE for detail: bringing HS6 trade and tariff data to GTAP
Presented by: Horridge, Mark

Assessing Trade Liberalization at the product level: The How and Why?
Presented by: Laborde, David

Growth and Poverty
Organized by: Christian Arnault Emini

This session is composed of four presentations focused on the growth and poverty links, along with the poverty and growth effects of various economic policies in developing countries. Microsimulation CGE models are used as the main methodology device. But they are built with various specificities and mixed with other techniques like double-calibration and econometrics. The policies considered are trade liberalization, devaluation, infrastructure investments, tax and costums policies. The theme of this session is of high importance nowadays, when the question is to dig down the propoor significance of growth, the quality of growth, the ability of growth and growth-conducive policies to really alleveiate poverty and help achieve Millenium Goals.

Does Agricultural Trade Liberalization Help the Poor in Tunisia? A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach
Presented by: Belhaj Hassine, Nadia

Macroeconomic and Gender Impacts of Trade Liberalization and Growth in Developing Countries: A Comparison of Ghana, Honduras, Senegal and Uganda
Presented by: Fofana, Ismael

Trade liberalization, growth, employment and poverty in Bangladesh
Presented by: Raihan, Selim

Duct tape or theory? A practitioners’ discussion on linking of models with a focus on agriculture
Organized by: Frank van Tongeren

Answering a call for more detailed assessment without losing sight of the bigger picture, linking of models has become increasingly popular. The common thread in this session is that a GTAP (style) model is linked to an agricultural model. The reason for linking an agricultural model is that the way in which agricultural is modeled in GTAP is deemed insufficient for the research question at hand.

Assessing the impacts of the WTO negotiations on the global, national and farm level
Presented by: Urban, Kirsten

Extending general equilibrium to the tariff line: U.S. dairy in the Doha development agenda
Presented by: Rutherford, Thomas

Getting the best of both worlds? Linking CAPRI and GTAP for an economywide assessment of agriculture
Presented by: Jansson, Torbjörn

Top Down, and a little Bottom Up: Modeling EU Agricultural Policy Liberalization with LEITAP and ESIM
Presented by: Banse, Martin

Meta-Analytical Methods: Potential Opportunities for Applied Trade Analysis
Organized by: Sebastian Hess

organized by Sebastian Hess, Yves Surry and Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel

Meta Response Surface Design for General and Partial Equilibrium Models
Presented by: Hess, Sebastian

Reciprocal trade agreements in gravity models: a meta-analysis
Presented by: Salvatici, Luca

The Puzzling Persistence of the Distance Effect on Bilateral Trade
Presented by: Disdier, Anne-CéLia

Chinese Economy
Organized by: Shantong Li

P. R. China is a large developing country with a huge population and a tremendous amount of territory. Among the regions, the natural endowments as well as economic and social conditions differ greatly. Recently multi-regional CGE models have been constructed and used to analyze the economic, social, and environment issues in China, such as structure change, labor mobility, energy, environment, etc. This session will focus on development of Chinese multi-regional CGE models and its application.

Regional Energy/Envionmental Policy and Leakage Effect
Presented by: Li, Shantong

The Effect of Inter-regional Migration to Economic Growth and Regional Disparity
Presented by: Zhaoyuan, Xu

The historical simulation and forecast of Energy demand in China: an application of the SICGE model
Presented by: Zhang, Yaxiong

Trade and integration in Africa
Organized by: Antoine Bouët

In debates about globalization, Africa’s ability to take advantage of trading opportunities has always been under contention. Data indicate that the continent’s share of world exports has declined sharply, from about 5.5 percent in 1975 to about 2.5 percent in 2002 (source: World Development Indicators). This session is aimed at studying the various forms of Africa’s integration in world trade (North-South regional agreement, South-South regional agreement, and multilateral liberalization) and the attached virtues and drawbacks of each of these options. Finally as a lack of domestic infrastructure is often pointed out as responsible for African failure to trade, the session also looks at the role of transportation and telecommunication infrastructure.

A detailed partial equilibrium assessment of trade and tax income impacts of the EU-ACP Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAS).
Presented by: Mitaritonna, Maria Cristina

Does Africa Trade less and why ?
Presented by: Bouët, Antoine

Trade and Real Income Impacts of the COMESA Customs Union
Presented by: Dimaranan, Betina

Analysis of African Countries: Session I
Organized by: Badri Narayanan

This consists of 4 papers, which study different features of African Economies, such as effects of trade liberalization. One of the papers addresses the trade data quality/availability issue, by attempting to estimate the 'missing' trade data for some African countries.

Missing intra-African trade and the assessment of trade policy effects in African countries
Presented by: Villoria, Nelson

The Impact of Trade Liberalization and Domestic Tax Policies on the Sudanese Economy
Presented by: Siddig, Khalid

Trade policies and development in Africa: The ECOWAS and The Doha Development Agenda, the EU Economic Partnerships Agreements
Presented by: Adjasi, Charles

Climate Change-Impacts, Mitigation and Distribution
Organized by: Dominique van der Mensbrugghe

The global community is gearing up for negotiations on a new protocol to succeed the Kyoto Protocol. It is clear--as evidenced by the discussions at Bali--that developing countries will play a much greater role in these negotiations than in the past. The success or failure of these negotiations will depend to the extent that a broad group of countries can overcome a possible wide-range of opposition to any imposition of emission limits--be it at the national, sectoral or special interest group level. The papers in this session are intended to highlight some of the political economy aspects of a Kyoto Protocol successor by identifying potential gainers and losers from any new Protocol and assessing potential compensation mechanisms and policy designs that can minimize the potential losses.

Bargaining for an efficient allocation of emission permits to developing countries.
Presented by: Kremers, Hans

Global climate change and its distributional impacts
Presented by: van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique

Leveling the Global Playing Field: Taxing Energy Use and Carbon Emissions
Presented by: Thierfelder, Karen

Organized Session: Biofuels and Climate Policy
Organized by: Steven Rose

While there has been a great deal of attention focused on biofuels mandates, and their impacts on food and fuel markets recently, there has been relatively less attention devoted to the interactions between biofuels policies and climate policies – specifically carbon emissions and the cost of GHG mitigation. The three papers in this session tackle this issue in various ways. In the first paper, the authors consider how the US and EU biofuel mandates are likely to affect GHG emissions, and also how they are likely to affect the GHG mitigation potential of land-using sectors. The second paper looks at the interaction between biofuels mandates in the EU and the European carbon trading system. It also explores the impacts of free trade in biofuels. Finally, the third paper focuses on land supply and how this affects the decision to convert land, as well as the resulting implications for carbon emissions. The last paper also considers the impacts of environmental change on biofuels opportunities.

Biofuels Mandates, Land Use and Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Presented by: Rose, Steve

Economic and Social Impacts of Energy Shocks: A General Equilibrium Analysis for Chile
Presented by: de Miguel, Carlos

Land Use and Carbon Implications of a Global Biofuels Industry in a CGE Model: Implications of Different Land Supply Formulations
Presented by: Gurgel, Angelo

The potential for biofuels alongside the EU-ETS
Presented by: Veenendaal, Paul J. J.

Examining the Impacts of Biofuel Mandates
Organized by: Wally Tyner

This session examines the impacts of US and EU biofuels mandates from three different perspectives. The first paper (van Meijl et al) focuses on the global impacts of EU biofuels policies and with respect to both first and second generation biofuels. The second paper (Birur et al) examines the interaction of US and EU biofuels policies and examines global implications of US and EU policies alone and in combination. The third paper (Taheripour et al) is also a global policy impact analysis but focuses more on the importance of incorporating biofuels co-products into our analysis. Taken together the papers provide very useful analysis and information on the impacts of US and EU biofuels mandates.

Biofuels and their by-products: Global economic and environmental implications
Presented by: Tyner, Wally

The Global Impacts of Multi-National Biofuel Mandates
Presented by: Hertel, Thomas

The Impact of First and Second Generation Biofuels on Global Agricultural Production, Trade and Land Use
Presented by: van Meijl, Hans

Measuring the Economic Impacts of Trade Facilitation
Organized by: Peter Minor

World trade has grown rapidly in recent decades, but goods do not yet flow freely from place to place. The large majority of firms serve only domestic markets, and among firms that do export only a small portion of sales is to foreign customers. National borders themselves appear "thick." For example, McCallum (1995) showed that the quantity of trade between Canadian provinces was about 22 times greater than trade between Canadian provinces and U.S. states of similar size and distance. Why don't countries trade more? Discussions of trade barriers usually focus on tariffs, but average import tariffs worldwide dropped from 8.6 to 3.2 percent between 1960 and 1995(Clemens and Williamson 2002). Perhaps nontariff barriers are the primary obstacle s to trade? This organized session examines a particular type of nontariff barrier: trade facilitation-the support a country provides in facilitating the movement of goods across borders including customs, port facilities and procedures and inland transport. The discussion will be organized around current state of knowledge and extending research to better estimate economic and trade impacts with an eye towards constructively informing policy makers and stakeholders.

Developing Country Trade Diversification and Commodity Specific Impacts Due to Reducing Time to Trade Across Borders: A Computable General Equilibrium Perspective
Presented by: Minor, Peter

Modeling Endogenous Trade Facilitation
Presented by: Mirza, Tasneem

Trade Facilitation - Which Effects on the Extensive and Intensive Margins of Trade?
Presented by: Persson, Maria

WIDER Session on Global Development
Organized by: Guanghua Wan

Not Provided

Analysing household expenditure with an extended version of the GTAP model: The case of Mexico
Presented by: Gonzalez Mellado, Aida

Feasible financing strategies for achieving the MDGs in Latin America and the Caribbean: a dynamic CGE analysis
Presented by: Vos, Robert

How Much Do Institutions Matter for Trade? Evidence from Transition Countries
Presented by: Mavisakalyan, Astghik