GTAP Research: CGE Baseline Data and Documentation
At the 2010 GTAP Advisory Board Meeting
and later at a workshop on baselines organized by the USITC
and the Centre of Policy Studies
in Shanghai, there was considerable interest in establishing a website where people could share baseline data and information on baseline data sources, as well as programs for updating GTAP data, filling and aggregating baseline data. 'Where do I find baseline data?'
is also fast becoming the most frequently asked question amongst new GDyn users and other GTAP Network members.
joined the Center for Global Trade Analysis
to assist with the development of a new baseline for the Dynamic GTAP Model
and to set up this baseline page where GTAP users can easily find and contribute data sources, baseline documentation and programs. Our view is that sharing data and expertise with researchers working on baselines will help create reliable and defendable baseline scenarios.
This page contains the information listed below. Please click each link to take you directly to that section.
- Historical Data and Projections - List of recent long-term projections data sources available for a high number of countries. If you know other data sources that should be listed here, please contact Jeremy Douglas.
- CGE Model Baseline Data and Documentation - GDyn and other model baseline documentations and applications
- Baseline Utilities - Programs to obtain projections for any specific aggregation of the GTAP 7.1 Data Base.
Historical Data and Projections
Macroeconomic Data Sources
CEPII baseline 1.0 (2010)
Description: 1980-2050 data for 122 countries for GDP, savings, investment, total population, labor force, capital stock, total primary energy consumption, human capital, total factor productivity and energy efficiency.
Documentation: Jean FOURE, Agnès BENASSY-QUERE & Lionel FONTAGNE (2010), The world economy in 2050: a tentative picture, CEPII Working paper 2010-27.
IMF World Economic Outlook 2011 (September 2011)
Description: 1980-2016 data for up to 184 countries for variables including GDP, savings investment, total population, government expenditure, exports and imports.
Documentation:International Monetary Fund, World Economic outlook , September 2011
IIASA education projections (2010)
Description: 2005-2050 five yearly projections for 120 countries of populations by level of educational attainment, age and sex
Documentation: Samir KC, Bilal Barakat, Anne Goujon, Vegard Skirbekk, Warren Sanderson, Wolfgang Lutz (2010), Projection of populations by level of educational attainment, age, and sex for 120 countries for 2005-2050, Demographic Research 22(15): 383-472
Economist Intelligence Unit's "EIU Country Data"
Description: 1980-2030 data of up to 201 countries for variables including GDP, savings investment, total population, government expenditure, imports and exports.
Data: https://eiu.bvdep.com (on subscription only)
Oxford Economics' "Global Economic databank"
Description: 1980-2035 data for up to 190 countries for variables including GDP, savings investment, total population, government expenditure, energy prices, imports and exports.
Data: http://www.oxfordeconomics.com (on subscription only)
United Nations population projections (2011)
Description: 1950-2100 population data for 264 countries and regions
International Labour Organization (2009)
Description: 1980-2020 Economically Active Population Estimates and Projections (EAPEP) for 220 countries and regions
Energy Data Sources
Sectoral Output Data Sources
Oxford Economics' "Global Industry databank"
Description: 1980-2035 output shares in 76 countries for 18 sectors
Data: http://www.oxfordeconomics.com (on subscription only)
Sectoral Productivity Data Sources
CGE Model Baseline Data and Documentation
Submit Baseline Materials
The following baseline materials have been made available by members of the GTAP Network. Some of these materials are publicly available, while others are restricted to members of the "Baseline Working Group". In order to view and access the restricted materials, members of this group must be logged in.
Other papers which develop baselines may also be found in the GTAP Resource Center.
Projections for World CGE Model Baselines
by Chappuis, Thomas and Terrie Walmsley
While constructing a new baseline for the GDyn model, we spent a lot of time collecting projections and deciding which data to choose. We also developed programs to aggregate projections to any specific geographical aggregation of the GTAP Data Base. In order to help researchers in the construction of their own baselines, we created a baseline section1 on the GTAP website where GTAP users can find the projections data and programs. The purpose of this paper is to document the data used in our new GDyn baseline and to provide a user guide of the baseline website. Our view is that sharing data and expertise with researchers working on baselines will help create reliable and defendable baseline scenarios.
The second annex documents the aggregation programs from the 112 GTAP 7.1 regions to a specific geographical aggregation.
A Base Case Scenario for the Dynamic GTAP Model
by Walmsley, Terrie, Betina Dimaranan and Robert McDougall
Paper developed for the Short Course on the Dynamic Model, October, 2000.
The increasing interest in dynamic models and in particular the development of the Dynamic GTAP model at the Center for Global Trade Analysis has highlighted the need to develop a base case scenario depicting how the world economy might be expected the change over the next 20 years. The purpose of this paper is to show how such a base case scenario has been created for use with the Dynamic GTAP model (Ianchovichina, 1998 and Ianchovichina, McDougall and Hertel, 1999) and GTAP data base.
This document is intended to be used in conjunction with a base case aggregation program which was constructed at the Center for Global Trade Analysis. This program takes as its inputs macro and policy forecasts and allows the user to: 1) alter various assumptions about the implementation of policies; and 2) aggregate over time, regions and commodities; to obtain a base case scenario which is specific to their needs. Although the base case program is specifically designed with the Dynamic GTAP model in mind, it is general enough to be used with other models. It should be noted however, that the base case scenario developed here is very general, it looks only at the standard macro aggregates and does not provide alternative optimistic or pessimistic scenarios.
If you want to contribute baseline documentation and/or data either with public or restricted access, you may upload them here. The restricted materials are available to the members of the Baseline Working Group who are interested in contributing and/or collaborating with others on the development of baseline materials. If you are interested in becoming a member of the Baseline Working Group, please contact Jeremy Douglas.
GTAP 7 Data Base Utilities
- Macro projections for the 112 regions of the GTAP 7.1 Data Base for real GDP, investment, savings, government expenditures, exports and imports, population, total labor force, skilled labor and unskilled labor
- Aggregation programs for any specific geographical aggregation of the the GTAP 7.1 Data Base
- Documentation of the projections and aggregation programs
GTAP 6 Data Base Utilities
- Labor projections for 87 GTAP regions for skilled and unskilled Labor plus an aggregation program.
- Macro projections for 10 regions for Real GDP, Investment, Population, Population under 15, population 15-65, population over 65, consumption, capital, labor, skilled labor and unskilled labor. Since these are only for 10 regions we suggest only using them for regions which are not your primary concern.
- Policy programs to allow you to calculate policy shocks (e.g., changes in taxes, tariffs and export subsidies) assuming that policy shocks are eliminated at a constant rate over time.
Last Modified: 9/15/2015 3:09:24 PM