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GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #4955

"Nutrition Transition and the Structure of Global Food Demand"
by Gouel, Christophe and Houssein Guimbard


Abstract
Estimating future demand for food is a critical aspect of global food security analyses. The process linking dietary changes to wealth is known as the nutrition transition and presents well-identified features that help to predict consumption changes in poor countries. This study proposes to represent the nutrition transition with a nonhomothetic, flexible-in-income, demand system. The resulting model is estimated statistically based on cross-sectional information from FAOSTAT. It captures the main features of the nutrition transition: rise in demand for calories associated with income growth; diversification of diets away from starchy staples; and a large increase in caloric demand for animal-based products, fats, and sweeteners. The estimated model is used to project food demand between 2010 and 2050 based on a set of plausible futures (trend projections and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios). The main results of these projections are: (1) global food demand will increase by 47%, less than half the growth in the previous four decades; (2) this growth will be attributable mainly to lower-middle-income and low-income countries; (3) the structure of global food demand will change over the period, with a doubling of demand for animal-based calories and a much smaller 19% increase in demand for starchy staples; and (4) the analysis of a range of population and income projections reveals important uncertainties: depending on the scenario, the projected increases in demand for animal-based and vegetal-based calories range from 74 to 114% and from 20 to 42%, respectively.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2016 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 101(2), 383-403.
Date: 2019
Version:
Created: Gouel, C. (4/14/2016)
Updated: Gouel, C. (2/20/2019)
Visits: 876
- Baseline development
- Calibration and parameter estimation
- Dynamic modeling
- Demographics
- Economic development
- Economic growth
- Food prices and food security
- Not Applicable


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