GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7739 |
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"The Impacts of Regionally Fragmented Climate Policies on Trade Flows and CO2 Emissions in Northeast Asia: A Recursive Dynamic CGE Analysis" Authors: Kim, Jintae Abstract As Northeast Asia (NEA) accounts for over 38% of global GHGs and serves as the core of global manufacturing, its transition to Net-Zero is poised to trigger profound structural shifts in global trade. This study employs GUIDE-GLOBAL-CGE, a 17-region recursive dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model, to analyze the macroeconomic impacts of asymmetric climate policies across six NEA nations (South Korea, China, Japan, Russia, Mongolia, and North Korea) toward 2050. To address existing methodological limitations, this study introduces an independently reconstructed Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for North Korea and rigorously calibrates energy substitution elasticities using empirical meta-data to reflect realistic transition frictions. Simulation results demonstrate that an isolated national approach to Net-Zero induces severe asymmetric shocks: export-driven economies (South Korea and Japan) suffer significant Terms of Trade (TOT) deterioration due to high domestic abatement costs, while unconstrained nations (North Korea) inadvertently transform into pollution havens via trade-induced carbon leakage. Conversely, the establishment of an Integrated Carbon Market (ICM) substantially optimizes aggregate compliance costs. Crucially, market integration mitigates severe economic disruptions: heavily industrialized nations can alleviate their transitional burdens via imported allowances, while resource-abundant exporters (Russia and Mongolia) replace declining physical fossil fuel exports with valuable carbon credits. The resulting carbon trade surpluses drive a substantial influx of advanced machinery imports, financing their structural industrial modernization. Taken together, our findings highlight that for NEA, transitioning from fragmented policies to a fully inclusive ICM is not merely an environmental obligation, but an essential strategy for regional economic cooperation. |
| Resource Details () | GTAP Keywords | ||||||||||||||||
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- Climate change policy - Environmental policies - Trade and the environment - GTAP Data Base and extensions - Calibration and parameter estimation - Asia (East) |
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If you have trouble accessing any of the attachments below due to disability, please contact the authors listed above.
Public Access  The Impacts of Regionally Fragmented Climate Policies on Trade Flows and CO (2.3 MB) Replicated: 2 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 4/20/2026 1:44:43 PM
