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GTAP Resource #7743

"Impact of Energy Mix Transition in China’s Power Sector on the Domestic and Global Economy and CO2 Emissions"
Authors: Ban, Hikari and Kiyoshi Fujikawa


Abstract
China was committed to the dual carbon targets of peaking emissions by 2030 and achieving net-zero emissions by 2060. Past studies have mostly analyzed the impacts on power generation, while paying little attention to carbon leakage to other domestic industries and to countries and regions outside China. This chapter estimates the amount of carbon leakage with an international computable general equilibrium model. We found that China’s switch from coal power to renewable energy and efficiency improvements in coal power will raise domestic electricity prices and lower coal prices, leading to carbon leakage to other industries within China. Production in energy-intensive sectors increases in most countries and regions except China, but GDP declines in half of them. As a result, the switch can trigger sectoral carbon leakage in most sectors except the power sector, international carbon leakage in some countries, and may reduce global GDP. To prevent carbon leakage and reduce the economic burden, all industries and countries must advance decarbonization.


Resource Details () GTAP Keywords
Category: 2026 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented during the 29th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Kyoto, Japan)
Date: 2026
Version:
Created: Fujikawa, K. (4/13/2026)
Updated: Fujikawa, K. (4/13/2026)
Visits: 35
- Climate change policy
- Renewable energy
- GTAP Data Base and extensions
- Asia (East)


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