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GTAP Resource #7751

"Remote-Sensing Evidence on the Productivity and Economic Effects of Climate-Smart Agriculture in Kenya: An Impact Evaluation of Kenya Climate-Smart Agriculture Project (KCSAP)"
Authors: Fisker, Peter, Joshua Laichena, Francis Kaloi and Jecinta Anomat


Abstract
This study evaluates the impacts of the Kenya Climate Smart Agriculture Project using high-resolution remote sensing to generate policy-relevant evidence on agricultural productivity, economic activity and infrastructure development in Kenya. While KCSAP targets over 522,000 smallholder households across 24 counties, existing evaluations have largely focused on implementation processes and technology adoption, with limited evidence on measurable outcomes. This study addresses that gap by analyzing satellite-derived indicators over the period 2016 to 2025.

The analysis uses three indicators: the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index to measure vegetation health and agricultural productivity, nighttime lights to capture local economic activity and building footprints to assess infrastructure expansion. Treatment areas are identified using georeferenced subproject data and compared with matched control locations to address non-random targeting. A difference-in-differences framework is applied to estimate causal impacts over time.

The study further examines variations across intervention types, including water and soil management, livelihood diversification, livestock productivity and sustainable land management. Multiple spatial buffers capture localized and spillover effects. Findings provide evidence on which interventions generate sustained improvements in productivity and resilience, while demonstrating the scalability of satellite-based evaluation methods. Results support data-driven policymaking aligned with Vision 2030, ASTGS and BETA for inclusive agricultural transformation.


Resource Details () GTAP Keywords
Category: Other CGE Application
Status: Not published
By/In:
Date: 2026
Version:
Created: Laichena, J. (4/13/2026)
Updated: Laichena, J. (4/13/2026)
Visits: 23
- Climate change policy
- Climate impacts
- Sustainable development
- Other data bases and data issues
- Agricultural policies
- Economic development
- Advances in quantitative methods
- Multi-scale and geospatial modeling
- Africa (East)


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Comments (1 posted)
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Posted by: Laichena, Joshua   4/13/2026 11:42:00 AM
Paper in in the process of being completed