GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7800 |
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"Renewed U.S. Protectionism and Sub-Saharan Africa: Assessing the Dual Shock of Preference Erosion and Global Value Chain Transmission" Authors: Antimiani, Alessandro, Ilaria Fusacchia, Pierluigi Montalbano and Silvia Nenci Abstract This paper examines the potential impacts of a second Trump administration’s trade policy on Sub-Saharan African (SSA) economies through two main channels. The first is a direct trade effect resulting from the possible non-renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), coupled with the expiration of the U.S. Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). This would revert SSA exports to Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) tariffs, significantly reducing competitiveness in sectors like apparel, textiles, leather goods, and processed agricultural products. While expanded EU GSP use could mitigate some effects, the overall outcome remains uncertain and potentially negative. The second channel involves indirect spillovers via global value chains (GVCs). SSA primarily participates as an upstream supplier of critical minerals, energy inputs, and intermediates. A protectionist U.S. stance could impact major GVC hubs like China, Vietnam, Mexico, India, and others, which import SSA inputs for processing and re-export to the U.S. The resulting demand reduction may harm SSA exports, but the impact is uncertain—SSA’s strong position in critical, non-substitutable minerals could limit substitution risks. The study employs a multi-region computable general equilibrium model (GTAP-VA) to quantify these effects, analyzing two scenarios: one with preference erosion due to AGOA termination, and another with a uniform 10% ad valorem tariff, excluding critical minerals, energy, and sectors under Section 232 measures. The model also considers recent policy developments, such as U.S.–China tariff de-escalation, bilateral tariff caps, agricultural carve-outs, and USMCA preferences. This comprehensive framework enables detailed analysis of the combined shocks—preference erosion and GVC spillovers—and their sectoral and partner-specific impacts on SSA trade, emphasizing the importance of GVC linkages in assessing U.S. trade policy effects on the Global South. |
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- Economic development - Model extension/development - Africa (Central) - Africa (East) - Africa (North) - Africa (Southern) - Africa (West) - North America |
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Public Access  GTAP Resource 7800 (617.6 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 4/20/2026 1:44:43 PM
