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GTAP Resource #4487

"What does the future hold for the poor in Ghana?"
by Van Dijk, Michiel, Marijke Kuiper, Lindsay Shutes and Hans van Meijl


Abstract
Ghana is considered a ‘success story’ of development in Africa. A growth rate of more than four per cent over the last two decades has resulted in an almost doubling of GDP and a dramatic improvement in poverty and food security. As a consequence, the country is on track to achieve MDG1 – halving the proportion of poor and hungry people – before 2015. Ghana aims to become a middle income country by 2020 yet its future depends on a wide range of factor including climate change, population growth and international trade. The effect of these drivers on the lives of people will differ across households. For example, it is expected that climate change will be particularly damaging to the agricultural sector, which, at 36 per cent of GDP, is a major contributor to economic growth and employer of rural labour. It is also likely to negatively impact the cocoa sector which is an important source of export earnings. Climate change could therefore disproportionally affect the livelihoods of the rural poor and small scale (cocoa) farmers.
This paper examines Ghana’s development prospects to 2050 by evaluating the impact of a range of scenarios. We consider a range of climatic challenge using the IPCC shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and show the impact on economic growth, food security and poverty in Ghana. Furthermore we use this analysis to highlight areas for policy intervention particularly regarding vulnerable households.
We conduct the analysis using the Modular Applied GeNeral Equilibrium Tool (MAGNET) which is extended to include MyGTAP with nine household groups for Ghana. The result is a Ghanaian-focused global CGE model that produces a detailed picture of the economy in 2030 and the degree to which climate change will threaten and potentially undo the development of the last two decades.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2014 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 17th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Dakar, Senegal
Date: 2014
Version: 1
Created: van Meijl, H. (4/15/2014)
Updated: Batta, G. (4/23/2014)
Visits: 798
- Dynamic modeling
- Climate impacts
- Economic analysis of poverty
- Economic development
- Economic growth
- Africa (West)


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