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GTAP Resource #5073

"Estimating summary functions for energy-technologies choice models"
by Lugovoy, Oleg and Vladimir Potashnikov

In the paper we discuss and apply “Bottom-Up” technological forward looking model to simulate all possible technological shifts for several industries, and then use this pool of data to build summary functions, which could be used in CGE models. We evaluate a potentially best structure of nested CES functions, as well as combination of linear and Leontief functions, and estimate elasticities of substitution between energy sources, investment and fuels, and evaluate exogenous technological shifts. We apply a multi-sector Bottom-Up energy model with explicit representation of technologies for a Monte-Carlo (MC) experiments where we simulate various economic conditions, identify cost efficient solutions for every of the following years up to 2050. Then standard econometric methodology is applied to approximate the space of cost-efficient solutions with a nested CES production function and alternatives. The results can be used for parametrization of CGE/AGE models to improve their results for energy choices, making them more applicable for climate and energy policy analysis. The paper updates last year findings and extends theoretical framework of the methodology.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2016 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 19th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Washington DC, USA
Date: 2016
Created: Lugovoy, O. (4/15/2016)
Updated: Batta, G. (5/10/2016)
Visits: 750
- Calibration and parameter estimation
- Climate change policy
- Not Applicable

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