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GTAP Resource #5275

"Is Japanese economic growth possible under a decrease in population? : Policy implication of dynamic spatial CGE model with endogenous growth mechanism"
by Kunimitsu, Yoji


Abstract
This paper tried to measure influences of population decline in matured economy like Japan with consideration of mutual relations of technological progress and population growth. The spatial dynamic computable general equilibrium model (SD-CGE model) was used to concretely show the future situation of economy. The simulation results demonstrated that (i)technological progress caused by knowledge capital stocks is critical for keeping the GDP level as the present situation in Japan where population is decreasing, (ii) in urban area, such as Kanto region, GDP can continue to increase, because inflow of fund and labor force occurs, but other regions face serious decline in GDP, (iii) Japan cannot achieve 600 trillion yen ( 5.5 trillion dollars) of GDP in the future under population decline, which is the policy target of Japan, even if the past invested capital stocks in our society was taken into accounts, (iv) furthermore, the more serious problem will happen after the 2030's, and GDP turns into decrease due to a decrease in knowledge capital stocks. To avoid such decrease in GDP, the government should keep demand for manufacturing products by enhancing children support program for an increase in birth rate of young generations.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2017 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 20th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, West Lafayette, IN, USA
Date: 2017
Version: 1
Created: Kunimitsu, Y. (4/14/2017)
Updated: Kunimitsu, Y. (4/14/2017)
Visits: 461
- Demographics
- Economic growth
- Technological change
- Asia (East)


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