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GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #6386

"Heat Stress, Agricultural Labor and Poverty Impacts of Climate Change"
by Saeed, Wajiha

The economic implications of heat stress related labor capacity losses under climate change are not well-studied. High heat and humidity coupled with direct exposure to solar radiation can significantly reduce labor’s capacity for work. Labor capacity losses therefore vary by nature of work and sun exposure which translates to varying effects across regions as well as sectors.

This paper brings together several components that allow for a more comprehensive assessment of which segments of the global economy are most vulnerable when labor is affected by heat stress. First, we obtain regional heat stress predictions as measured by the Environmental Stress Index (ESI) and the labor capacity losses that result from this. Second, these data are combined with data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on heat exposure experienced by different types of labor, in different sectors, to obtain labor capacity losses that are specific to labor type and economic sector. Finally, these disaggregated estimates of labor capacity losses are simulated in a new, modified version of the Global Trade Analysis Project’s GTAP-POV model which is paired with a disaggregated database of 65 sectors and 139 countries/regions. We are thus able to identify specific segments of the global economy that are most vulnerable to heat stress. More specifically, we identify which sectors in which regions are most vulnerable in terms of employment, output, and GDP. Finally, we estimate impacts on the poverty headcounts in a sub-set of regions, taking into account that households that earn their incomes from different factors are affected differently, and that their sources of income (i.e. their allocation of labor) can change when labor productivity changes. Thus, we also identify the poor household strata that are particularly at risk as well. To our knowledge the poverty implications of labor productivity losses in agriculture have not yet been assessed.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2021 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 24th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Virtual Conference)
Date: 2021
Version: 1
Created: Saeed, W. (4/15/2021)
Updated: Batta, G. (7/13/2021)
Visits: 945
- Climate impacts
- Africa (Central)
- Africa (East)
- Africa (North)
- Africa (Southern)
- Africa (West)
- Asia (East)
- Asia (South-Central)
- Asia (Southeast)

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