GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7680 |
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"Ozone pollution reduction partially offsets the negative impact of climate mitigation efforts on global hunger" by Xia, Shujuan, Tomoko Hasegawa, Thanapat Jansakoo, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Kazuaki Tsuchiya, Shinichiro Fujimori, Maksym Chepeliev, Marta Kozicka, Abhijeet Mishra, Willem-Jan Van Zeist, Xin Zhao, Thijs De Lange, Thais Diniz Oliveira, Jonathan Doelman, Matthew Gibson, Petr Havlik, Mario Herrero, Ipsita Kumar, Yuki Ochi, Timothy Sulser, Marina Sundiang, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Jun’ya Takakura and Keith Wiebe Abstract Climate change is expected to exacerbate vulnerabilities in food systems through changes in crop yield, posing serious risks to global food security. Achieving long-term food security requires climate change mitigation measures aimed at reducing GHG emissions. However, such measures often involve the expansion of bioenergy production and large-scale afforestation, which can intensify competition for land and potentially lead to higher food prices and increased risks of hunger. Meanwhile, mitigations measures such as reducing fossil fuel consumption and expanding renewable energy use also lower emissions of air pollutants. These air pollutants are precursors of surface ozone, elevated concentrations of which are known to reduce crop yields. Consequently, reductions in surface ozone associated with air pollutant emissions reductions may help offset the adverse impacts of climate mitigation measures and contribute to improved food security through enhanced crop yields. However, previous studies using integrated assessment models have not incorporated the effects of this ozone reduction benefit, leaving the magnitude of its impact on global hunger uncertain. The negative impacts of climate change mitigation measures may have been overestimated. Here, we use six global-agroeconomic-models to compare the impacts of climate change with climate mitigation policy, and ozone reduction on agriculture. We determined that ozone reduction could reduce the negative impact of a 1.5 °C-consistent climate change mitigation policy on global hunger by 15% in 2050. Sub-Saharan Africa and India, where hunger is most severe, account for 56% of this global reduction. Our findings suggest that ozone reductions associated with climate mitigation could partially offset mitigation-driven increases in global hunger, yet mitigation may still worsen food security overall. Mitigation strategies should therefore extend beyond carbon accounting and explicitly incorporate food-security impacts. |
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- Climate change policy - Climate impacts - Food prices and food security - Health - Partial and general equilibrium models - Global |
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Last Modified: 2/26/2026 2:27:51 PM
