GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7724 |
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"Local Agricultural Market Responses to Biofuel Demand: A Fine-Resolution Equilibrium Model Approach" Authors: Jeong, Junyoung, Jing Liu and Thomas Hertel Abstract The U.S. agricultural landscape has undergone significant changes over the past few decades alongside the evolution of biofuel mandates. While the corn-based ethanol mandate and production have stabilized, biomass-based diesel, particularly soybean-based diesel, has recently increased substantially. To meet this growing demand, soybean processing facilities have expanded, notably into the Northern and Western United States in addition to the traditional Heartland.This geographic evolution has implications for rural economies, as proximity to crop-processing plants can increase local crop prices, expand cropland, and boost employment. This study leverages the fine-resolution partial equilibrium model SIMPLE-G, which incorporates agricultural production and crop demand at granular spatial scales, thereby capturing geographically heterogeneous responses in key outcomes such as land use, crop production, and land rents. Preliminary experiments compare a soybean-based biofuel mandate shock without location specificity with scenarios that allocate demand increases to Farm Resource Regions. Across all scenarios, both cropland expansion and crop switching are observed. In the national-level demand shock scenario, land-use and allocation changes occur across broader regions, although the Heartland accounts for about half of cropland expansion. When all demand increases are imposed on the Heartland, cropland expansion is smallest, at around 2 million acres, and is instead complemented by the greatest degree of crop switching, which accounts for approximately 34% of soybean land expansion. When demand is assigned more heavily to the Northern Great Plains, conversion of pastureland to cropland is greater, with approximately 1 million more acres converted relative to the other two scenarios. The results demonstrate the framework’s ability to incorporate region-specific crop demand changes and capture local market responses. The study will be further improved by more realistically modeling the actual locations of processing facilities and their potential evolution, thereby generating implications for rural economies, environmental impacts, and the nuanced spatial assessment needed for policymakers in expanding U.S. biofuel portfolio. |
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- Land use - Renewable energy - Agricultural policies - Domestic policy analysis - Multi-scale and geospatial modeling - North America |
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Public Access  Paper (7.1 MB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 4/20/2026 1:44:43 PM
