GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7766 |
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"An Analysis of the Impact of Household Aging and Downsizing on Consumption and Carbon Neutrality Policies" Authors: Lim, Hyungwoo, Yookyung Yang and Jungwon Shin Abstract This study investigates the economic implications of demographic changes—specifically population aging and household downsizing—on carbon neutrality policies in South Korea. While existing climate policies focus heavily on production-side transformations, this research highlights the necessity of considering consumption-side behavioral changes driven by demographic shifts. By categorizing households into 19 types based on the age of the household head and family size using the 2019 Household Expenditure Survey, we derive specific consumption share parameters for each group. These parameters are integrated into the UNICON-CGE (UNIfied Climate Options Nexus CGE) model, modified using the MIRAGE-HH methodology to reflect heterogeneous household consumption behaviors. Three scenarios are constructed: a Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, a Net Zero (NZ) scenario imposing carbon costs aligned with Korea’s 2030 NDC and 2050 Carbon Neutrality pathways, and an NZ_dc_cpat scenario that additionally incorporates household-specific consumption patterns and demographic projections. The results reveal that demographic structural changes significantly alter the composition and magnitude of consumption-side emissions. Household aging and downsizing increase residential energy demand (electricity and heating) while reducing expenditures on education and transportation. When demographic change is incorporated (NZ_dc_cpat), the household sector achieves a smaller emission reduction (-30.8%) relative to the standard NZ pathway (-36.3%), as elderly households’ structurally higher energy demand partially offsets the carbon pricing effect. Meanwhile, production sectors achieve deeper reductions, and the required carbon price falls by 55.7% due to reduced economic activity. These findings underscore the importance of demographic-sensitive climate policy design and provide a basis for equitable carbon neutrality strategies. |
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- Climate change policy - Domestic policy analysis - Demographics |
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Public Access  Paper (513.5 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 4/30/2026 12:56:16 PM
