GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7798 |
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"Food system transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa: assessing impacts of global pathways on food security, biodiversity, and GHG emissions" Authors: Kozicka, Marta, Petr HavlÍk, David Leclère, Sibylle Rouet-Pollakis, Amanda Palazzo, Yazhen Wu and Stefan Frank Abstract Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is projected to experience rapid population growth and a near tripling of GDP by 2050, driving profound transformations in food systems with major implications for food security, trade, and the environment. Using the GLOBIOM partial equilibrium model, this study assesses how alternative global transformation pathways—productivity growth, reduced food loss and waste, dietary shifts toward the Planetary Health Diet, and their combination —shape food system outcomes across SSA and its sub-regions. Under business-as-usual (BAU), demand growth—especially for livestock—outpaces production, increasing import dependency and livestock prices. Cropland expands by 44%, largely at the expense of forests and other natural land (–10%), while AFOLU emissions rise by 37%. Pressures are strongest in the Congo Basin and Eastern Africa, where forest loss threatens key carbon stocks and biodiversity, while South Africa and Western Africa show stronger production growth and crop export potential. Scenario analysis reveals trade-offs. Productivity gains reduce prices but higher demand limits environmental benefits. Food loss and waste reductions have modest effects in SSA due to trade-mediated impacts. Dietary shifts deliver the largest environmental gains (-20% GHG emission) but, unlike globally, increase demand for animal-source foods in SSA, raising prices and import dependence. The combined scenario provides the most balanced outcomes, reducing land-use pressure and emissions, though disparities persist. Integrated, region-specific strategies are essential to balance nutrition, trade, and environmental goals while safeguarding biodiversity and critical ecosystems. SSA outcomes are also strongly shaped by changes in international markets and trade. Designing sustainable pathways therefore requires accounting for these external dynamics alongside regional heterogeneity, as uneven development leads to highly differentiated impacts and vulnerabilities. |
| Resource Details () | GTAP Keywords | ||||||||||||||||
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- Environmental policies - Land use - Sustainable development - Food prices and food security - Partial and general equilibrium models - Africa (Central) - Africa (East) - Africa (Southern) - Africa (West) |
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If you have trouble accessing any of the attachments below due to disability, please contact the authors listed above.
Public Access No documents have been attached. Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions This is a draft, please do not publish |
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Last Modified: 4/15/2026 11:27:11 AM
