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GTAP Resource #1165

"Quantifying APEC Trade Liberalization: A Dynamic Analysis"
by McKibbin, Warwick

The Bogor Declaration of 1994 proposed free trade in the Asia Pacific region by the year 2020. If implemented as announced, this program will have important implications for the world economy over the next few decades. This paper uses a new dynamic multi-sector global model called the Asia-Pacific G-Cubed Model (APGCUBED) to evaluate the economic impacts of the Bogor Declaration. The focus is on the adjustments between 1995 and 2020 in many of the APEC economies. A key aspect of the study is the role of international capital flows, expectations and physical capital accumulation in determining the size and distribution of income gains from this ambitious program of trade reform. The paper compares the implication of full APEC trade liberalization with liberalization between APEC members on a preferential basis and with liberalization that is restricted to ASEAN member economies. It is found that the largest gains for participating economies are realized by full non-preferential liberalization. Preferential liberalization only between APEC economies by discriminating against non-APEC economies only yields two thirds of these gains.

JEL Classification F15,F17,F36

* This paper uses the Asia Pacific version of the G-Cubed Multi-country Model. It has benefitted from a related research project with Philip Bagnoli and Peter Wilcoxen. I thank Alan Wong for excellent assistance in constructing the model as well as George Fane and David Pearce at the Centre for International Economics (Canberra) for helpful discussion. An earlier version of this paper was presented at a seminar at the Japanese Economic Planning Agency. I thank participants at that seminar for helpful comments. Financial support from the Korea Foundation is gratefully acknowledged. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not in any way reflect the views of the above mentioned individuals or institutions nor the staff or trustees of the Brookings Institution or the Australian National University.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: GTAP Application
Status: Not published
By/In: Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, The Australian National University
Date: 1996
Created: Bacou, M. (1/18/2003)
Updated: Bacou, M. (1/18/2003)
Visits: 1,551
No keywords have been specified.

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