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GTAP Resource #1450

"Sector- and Economy-wide Effects of Terminating the Use of Anti-microbial Growth Promoters in Denmark"
by Jacobsen, Lars-Bo and Hans Grinsted Jensen


Abstract
In Denmark the poultry industry and the National Committee for Pig Production, to-gether with the feedstuff industry, decided to voluntarily abolish the use of all Anti-microbial Growth Promoters (AGP). The poultry industry abolished the use of AGP 15 February 1998 and the pig industry followed 1 March 1998 (for pigs over 35 kg) and 1 January 2000 (for pigs under 35 kg).

To evaluate the effects of the removal of AGP, data from both the poultry and pig in-dustries were collected during a transition period for the removal of AGP from feed-stuffs. Utilizing these production data, this paper calculates economy-wide effects of the removal of AGP using the Agricultural Applied General Equilibrium (AAGE) model of the Danish economy.

The results show that the long-term effects are a moderate decline in the production and export of pig meat, and a positive indirect effect on other industries including poultry due to lower rental rates for primary factor inputs (land, labour and capital). Production of pig meat is projected to decline by 1.4%, and exports by 1.7%. In the case of poultry, production and exports increase by 0.4 and 0.5%. The overall impli-cation is a small decline in real GDP of 0.03% (363 mill DKK at 1995 prices), and a consumption decline of 0.03% - equivalent to 45 DKK per capita per year.

Although the cost in terms of real GDP and consumption are small, such cost analy-ses could be compared with expected benefit of the removal of AGP. These benefits have not been a part of this analysis, but only if they are determined or assumed to exceed the costs could AGP removal be said to be beneficial to society as a whole.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2004 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Food Economics Vol. 3, No1. 2006
Date: 2006
Version:
Created: Jensen, H. (4/28/2004)
Updated: Jensen, H. (8/28/2007)
Visits: 1,780
No keywords have been specified.


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