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GTAP Resource #1485

"Estimating the effects of EU enlargement, WTO accession and formation of FTA with EU or CIS on Russian economy"
by Alekseev, Alexander, Denis Sokolov, Natalia Turdyeva and Ksenia Yudaeva

Abstract: We estimate effects of Russia’s trade policy options on the production, welfare and trade flows. The computable general equilibrium model is used. We show that Russia looses in the case of EU enlargement unless non-tariff barriers in the accession countries are changed to the level of the EU. In all other trade arrangements – WTO accession, formation if Russia-EU FTA, and formation of a FTA between Russia and other CIS countries Russia improves its welfare.
This seems to be the first paper, which includes data on CIS countries other than Russia. We show that CIS countries experience substantial gains from formation of FTA with Russia.
Another novelty of this paper is an attempt to estimate non-tariff barriers to trade, and to accommodate the effect of their changes in the model. Inclusion of non-tariff barriers often changes the results dramatically, suggesting that CGE literature should pay more attention to incorporating such barriers.

Keywords: CGE, EU enlargement, Russia, WTO accession, CIS, Free Trade Area, non-tariff measures of protection (NTM)

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2004 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 7th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Washington DC, USA
Date: 2004
Version: 2
Created: Turdyeva, N. (4/30/2004)
Updated: Turdyeva, N. (6/3/2004)
Visits: 2,790
No keywords have been specified.

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