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GTAP Resource #1680

"GSIM Measurement of the Costs of Protection in Southeast Europe"
by Holzner, Mario

In this paper, the global simulation model (GSIM) by Francois and Hall (2003) for the analysis of global, regional and unilateral trade policy changes was applied to 8 countries of Southeast Europe in order to measure the costs of protection in the region. The model is a multiregion, imperfect substitutes model of world trade employing a partial equilibrium approach. After using regional data on trade and initial and final tariffs (a ‘2020 Southeast Europe – European Union accession and world – wide – tariff - reduction’ scenario was assumed) and elasticities for 30 industries in the categories of Agriculture, hunting and forestry (ISIC A : 01-02), Fishing (ISIC B: 05), Mining and quarrying (ISIC C: 10-14) and Manufacturing (ISIC D: 15-36), the following output is being estimated: trade effects, welfare effects (producer surplus, consumer surplus and change in tariff revenue) and price and output changes. As expected, most of the changes in net welfare after a full liberalization of trade in the Balkans and between Southeast Europe and the European Union are likely to emerge in those sectors where the Southeast European countries have specialized and protection is strong: agriculture, food processing and the textiles industry. For many of the Southeast European countries, trade liberalization will lead to a substantial loss of tariff revenues. However, this should be outweighed by an even stronger increase of consumer surplus due to substantially reduced consumer prices. The overall (aggregated) consumer surplus for the Balkans is estimated at more than USD 5 billion or 4% of 2002 GDP as against an overall (aggregated) Southeast European loss of tariff revenues of approximately USD 2 billion or about 1.6% of 2002 GDP.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2005 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 8th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Lübeck, Germany
Date: 2005
Created: Holzner, M. (4/14/2005)
Updated: Holzner, M. (4/14/2005)
Visits: 2,099
No keywords have been specified.

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