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GTAP Resource #1695

"Economy-wide estimates of the implications of climate change: human health"
by Bosello, Francesco


Abstract
In this study the economic impacts of climate-change-induced change in human health, related to six classes of climate-related diseases, namely cardiovascular and respiratory disorders, diarrhoea, malaria, dengue fever and schistosomiasis, are assessed. This integrated assessment exercise couples, following the so-called “soft-link” approach, results from a global circulation model, a health module and the GTAP-E computable general equilibrium model. First, we derived benchmark data-sets for the world economy at some selected future years (2010, 2030, 2050), using the methodology described in Dixon and Rimmer (2002). This entails inserting in the model calibration data forecasted values for some key economic variables, to identify a hypothetical general equilibrium state in the future. Then, changes in health status, summarised by morbidity and mortality changes, are translated into economic consequences through their impacts on labour stock and productivity and demand for health care. These are used to shock the GTAP-E computable general equilibrium model. GDP, welfare and investment fall (rise) in regions with net negative (positive) health impacts. Prices, production, and terms of trade show a mixed pattern. The developing world is generally more negatively affected. The contribution of this research is twofold: firstly it provides a global welfare estimation of one of the most worrying consequences of climate change, secondly it highlights the substitution mechanisms at work within and between economic systems acting both as a buffer of amplifier of effects according to which the direct cost estimates, which are common in climate change impact studies, end up to be substantively different from the final general equilibrium results.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: GTAP Application
2005 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 8th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Lübeck, Germany
Date: 2005
Version:
Created: Bosello, F. (4/26/2005)
Updated: Batta, G. (6/21/2005)
Visits: 1,420
No keywords have been specified.


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