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GTAP Resource #1795

"Crossing Boarders - Labor Movement in an Enlarged EU"
by Kurzweil, Marianne

With regard to the forthcoming EU Eastern enlargement a lot of CGE studies aiming to assess the economic impacts have been carried out. Mostly the focus of those analyses was put on consequences for trade flows, production etc. But while the implications of the enlargement process on trade in goods are already discussed at length CGE based analysis concerning its impacts on interregional labor movement has proceeded much more slowly. With regard to the candidate countries’ high share of workers employed in agriculture it can be assumed that there exist strong interdependencies between the development of agricultural trade and production on the one hand and the development of migration flows on the other hand. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to point out the coaction between agricultural trade liberalization and migration flows using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. In order to provide a proper basis for the analysis of those interdependencies the model was extended by a novel approach for the depiction of migration. In contrast to other CGE studies considering migration via exogenous shocks on a country’s labor endowment and population, this model extension allows for a simultaneous analysis of trade policies and migration by generating migration flows endogenously in the course of a model run. With the focus put on the EU Eastern enlargement the study particularly concentrates on effects in Germany and Poland. Given that Poland represents the largest accession candidate and that there exists a long history of Polish workers being employed in German agriculture specifically in very labor-intensive sectors like the vegetables and fruits sector these two countries are likely to be affected by European integration in a very strong manner. After a brief introduction and a basic overview of the GTAP model the paper provides a detailed explanation of the model extensions in terms of theoretical adjustments and also with respect to data base up-date. In the second part model design and simulation scenarios are presented. The obtained results highlight the influence of agricultural policies on international labor movement, employment and income situation. The paper ends with some concluding remarks.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: GTAP Application
2005 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 8th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Lübeck, Germany
Date: 2005
Created: Kurzweil, M. (5/9/2005)
Updated: Batta, G. (6/21/2005)
Visits: 2,662
No keywords have been specified.

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