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GTAP Resource #1835

"Market and Welfare Implications of Doha Reform Scenarios"
by Anderson, Kym, Will Martin and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe

The paper reports the potential gains from possible Doha scenarios--comparing these with a dynamic baseline (through 2015) and the gains from full reform. It uses the World Bank's Linkage global general equilibrium model. The latter is a a fairly standard recursive dynamic GE model--though with specific production structures for the crops and livestock sectors. The results are based on the latest version of the GTAP dataset (release 6.0) and incorporate changes to the baseline such as EU enlargement and China's WTO accession agreement. The baseline is calibrated to the most recent dynamic projections of the World Bank with assumptions on the population and labor force growth, productivity and the savings propensity. The paper will also report sensitivity analysis (Armington elasticities), comparative static comparisons, and decomposition of welfare gains between broad sectors and regions. The paper will show a) that dyanmics matters because of the evolution of the global economy and the dynamic gains from a more efficient allocation of resources, and b) that the Doha gains could be maximized if sensitive products are disallowed (or alternatively tariff peaks are capped) and if developing countries make significant offers and eliminate water in their tariffs. Beyond welfare impacts, the paper will also report structural changes, such as the reallocation of global agricultural output and exports, changes in bilateral trade flows, changes in world prices, terms of trade impacts and effects on factor incomes. If accepted, this paper would be presented in a session being organized by Alexander Sarris on comparing modeling results and global agricultural trade reform.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2005 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 8th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Lübeck, Germany
Date: 2005
Created: van der Mensbrugghe, D. (5/18/2005)
Updated: van der Mensbrugghe, D. (5/18/2005)
Visits: 2,788
- Baseline development

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