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GTAP Resource #2372

"An Exploratory Spatial Analysis of CGE Results: An Application to the US-Ecuador FTA and Ecuador’s Agricultural Sector"
by Schuschny, Andres, Carlos Ludena, Carlos De Miguel and José Elías Durán Lima


Abstract
Most CGE models usually present their results without at a disaggregated country level. This type of results lack a geographic representation of what happens at a subnational level. This is mainly due to the large amount of data needed, or lack of, in such models such as GTAP to make this possible. This study tries to bridge this gap by merging the results of a CGE analysis with spatial geo-referenced data at the municipal level by means of GIS techniques. We use the simulation results of a Free Trade Agreement between Ecuador, Colombia, Peru and Ecuador with the United States that estimates the effects on the Ecuadorian economy of such an agreement.
Tariff liberalization results are obtained using a general equilibrium model. We use the GTAP-AGR CGE model and database to asses the effects of simultaneous bilateral FTA between Andean countries and the U.S. on Ecuador’s agriculture. In Ecuador, agriculture is the most important exporting sector after oil.
The GTAP-AGR model is a modified version of GTAP that focuses on agriculture, and that models farm household and particular characteristics of the agricultural sector. We use version 6.2 of the GTAP database, which includes Ecuador as a disaggregated region in the database.
The source of the geographically referenced data is the databases of the UN-ECLAC. In our specific case we use agricultural census data for Ecuador (2001). We assign agricultural census data on production on certain crops, which are directly mapped to GTAP-AGR agricultural sectors. We distribute the gains and losses according to the importance of a specific crop in the political administrative unit, in the case of Ecuador, cantons.
The used methodology enables to match the economic results data of the GTAP-AGR with the census micro-data . We expect to show the economic effects of the FTA on Ecuador’s agriculture through the spatial lens. This would enable policy makers to focus their policies in a geographic or territorial way.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2007 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 10th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Purdue University, USA
Date: 2007
Version:
Created: Schuschny, A. (4/14/2007)
Updated: Batta, G. (4/15/2007)
Visits: 2,447
No keywords have been specified.


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