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GTAP Resource #2466

"Projected Impacts of the Doha Development Round on Egypt’s Trade and Production"
by Minor, Peter

The World Trade Organization’s Doha Development Agenda promises to liberalize agricultural and non-agricultural tariffs world wide. As of the Hong Kong ministerial conference held in late 2005, numerous tariff cutting formulas were introduced. However, a limited set of formulas have received attention. The following paper estimates the impacts of the proposed Doha liberalizing formulas on Egyptian trade and production using the GTAP model and data with a modified version of the CEPII Doha database. Several important questions are illuminated including the impacts of multi-lateral liberalization vs. the impacts of Egyptian liberalization of its own tariffs, regardless of the reciprocal tariff cutting—an important question to be considered, since Egypt has been pursuing unilateral tariff reductions since 2001, reducing its average tariffs significantly below currently binding WTO rates and are expected to continue through the decade. The analysis shows that nearly 80 percent of the estimated impacts of the Doha Round on Egypt’s agricultural sectors result from other countries liberalization and so the Doha round and the actions of WTO members could have important implications on Egypt. In contrast, Doha proposals will have significant impacts on Egypt’s current industrial tariffs and production. About two-thirds of estimated impacts on Egypt’s manufacturing sectors are estimated to derive from Egypt’s own Doha tariff liberalizations, with the balance of one-third impacts being comprised of other countries liberalizations on Egypt. While, the welfare impacts of the proposed Doha cuts are slightly positive for Egypt, improving overall welfare by less than one tenth of one percent, there are significant sector impacts such as a loss of over $200 million in textile and apparel production, which is balanced out by significant gains in domestic production and exports of metal and mineral products. The paper underscores the improved estimation of economy wide and sectoral impacts gained by a global general equilibrium model, in contrast to a single country or even single sector model.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: GTAP Application
Status: Not published
Date: 2007
Created: Batta, G. (5/15/2007)
Updated: Walmsley, T. (7/9/2009)
Visits: 4,546
- Africa (North)

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Public Access
  File format GTAP Resource 2466  (591.3 KB)   Replicated: 0 time(s)
  File format GTAP Resource 2466  (3.6 MB)   Replicated: 0 time(s)

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Special Instructions
This is the Egypt RunGTAP application used in the 2008 and 2009 GTAP Short courses.

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