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GTAP Resource #2704

"Validating a detailed, dynamic CGE model of the U.S.: progress report"
by Dixon, Peter and Maureen Rimmer


Abstract
For many years we have been using computable general equilibrium models in Australia and the U.S. to generate detailed forecasts of output growth for commodities/industries. Our main objective is to provide realistic basecases from which to calculate the effects of policy changes. In this paper, we have started assessing our forecasting method. Using data available up to 1998, we apply the method with the USAGE model to generate “genuine forecasts” for 500 U.S. commodities/industries for the period 1998 to 2005. We then compare these forecasts with actual outcomes.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2008 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 11th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Helsinki, Finland
Date: 2008
Version:
Created: Dixon, P. (4/15/2008)
Updated: Dixon, P. (4/15/2008)
Visits: 1,588
- Dynamic modeling
- Calibration and parameter estimation
- Baseline development
- North America


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  File format 2008 Conference Paper  (172.7 KB)   Replicated: 0 time(s)


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