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GTAP Resource #2825

"Latin America and the Caribbean’s Challenge to Reach the MDGs: Financing Options and Trade-offs A Macro-micro Dynamic CGE-based analysis"
by Vos, Rob, Marco V Sanchez Cantillo and Cornelia Kaldewei

With less than 10 years to go, much still remains to be done in order to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The present study analyses the feasibility of reaching these goals in 18 countries in Latin American and Caribbean. The analysis is based on a comparative economy-wide model framework that accounts for both the microeconomic determinants of needs satisfaction in education, health and basic sanitation, and macroeconomic trade-offs in the financing of public spending directed at satisfying those needs. It further considers synergies between degrees of progress towards education, health, basic sanitation and poverty-reduction goals. At variance with other assessments, the analysis shows that the region is “off track” towards many of the goals under a scenario of unchanged public policies. Efforts related to social spending will have to be stepped up in comparison with a “business as usual” scenario. Furthermore, achieving the goals is quite affordable for most countries in the region, but the analysis finds that these countries will need a change in their existing financing strategies. Tax increases and reforms are concluded to be the strategy which in most cases would minimize macroeconomic trade-offs and the increased debt distress associated with the alternative of domestic or external public borrowing.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: GTAP Application
Status: Published
By/In: United Nations
Date: 2008
Version: DESA Working Papers
Created: Vos, R. (6/14/2008)
Updated: Batta, G. (6/16/2008)
Visits: 1,550
- Economic development
- Economic analysis of poverty
- Dynamic modeling
- South America
- Central America
- Caribbean

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