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GTAP Resource #3028

"The effects of a credit crisis: simulations with the USAGE model"
by Rimmer, Maureen, Peter Dixon, Martin Johnson and Chris Rasmussen

We look at OECD macro forecasts made in November 2007 and November 2008. From this comparison, we deduce what the OECD was anticipating for the effects of the 2008 U.S. credit crisis on GDP in 2009-11. We reproduce the OECD-implied GDP effects in the USAGE model by imposing appropriate credit shortages. In this way, we use the CGE framework to fill out the industry, employment and trade implications of the credit crisis. The simulations show real devaluation of the U.S. currency and stimulation of trade-exposed industries. However, the U.S. currency remains strong. This leaves us with a modeling challenge: how to conduct a simulation in which there is a sharp reduction in investment but no real depreciation.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2009 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 12th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Santiago, Chile
Date: 2009
Created: Rimmer, M. (4/14/2009)
Updated: Rimmer, M. (6/17/2009)
Visits: 2,394
- Dynamic modeling
- North America

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