GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #3030 |
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"Lessons from Using Historical Data to build a Macro Baseline for the Dynamic GTAP Model" by Walmsley, Terrie and Anna Strutt Abstract The development of a baseline scenario is an important component for assessing the impact of a policy issue using a dynamic model. A baseline depicts how the economy might be expected to change, over a given period of time, if the policy were not implemented. For the GDyn model, the baseline scenario should therefore reflect as closely as possible the changes expected to occur in the world economy, excluding the particular policy of interest. However building a baseline which reflects expected changes in the world economy is a difficult task. Moreover, the choice of baseline can affect the results of the policy simulation (Adams and Parmenter, 2000). In light of the difficulties of creating a baseline for the GDyn model, previous baselines (Walmsley, 2006) have focused on obtaining a few key macroeconomic projections for real GDP, population, and skilled and unskilled labour; and key policies which have already been agreed upon or are expected to affect the regions/sectors or the policy scenario being examined. Another approach developed by Dixon and Rimmer (2002), which has been used in developing baselines for numerous single country models, uses a series of simulations (historical, decomposition and forecasting) to develop a baseline scenario. In this paper we hope to use some of these techniques to improve upon the GDyn baseline. We concentrate on the macro baseline by incorporating historical changes in Real GDP, consumption, government, labor, land, employment and investment. |
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- Dynamic modeling - Asia (East) - Asia (Southeast) |
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Public Access  GTAP Resource 3030 (349.3 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
