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GTAP Resource #3093

"Global CGE modelling of antibiotic resistance: An application of the GLOBE model"
by Keogh-Brown, Marcus, Scott McDonald, Richard Smith, Melisa Martinez-Alvarez and Jo Coast


Abstract
Antibiotic resistance undermines the effectiveness of health care prevention and treatment programmes, creating additional resource use, morbidity and mortality, and has been described as a threat to global stability and national security. Despite this, the prescription and use of antibiotics is made in many situations where they will neither be effective or significantly increase speed of recovery – increasing the burden of resistance without reducing illness.

In contrast to the traditional (partial equilibrium) approaches by health economists, we present an application of the GLOBE CGE model with sigmoid curve parameterisations of the frequency of resistance to estimate the impact of reduced antibiotic prescribing.

Results show the economic impact is highly dependent upon the point of the sigmoid resistance curve used to estimate frequency of resistance. However, the point on that curve which corresponds to the current level of resistance is unknown. We model several time points and apply resistance curves to the UK, North America, France and the Netherlands using their antibiotic prescribing rates. Assuming 1% morbidity effects for resitance, GDP impacts of up to 0.25% are yielded for France and North America, the UK impact is 0.15% and the Netherlands impact is very small. Larger impacts occur for increased morbidity. Results also suggest that exchange rates would alter in response to increasing resistance with high prescribing nations suffering exchange rate losses relative to lower prescribing nations. Reducing prescribing by 10% could result in annual savings of up to €350m for France, $8bn for North America and £100m for the UK.

We conclude that intervening early to reduce inappropriate prescribing and slow the increase of resistance is important. However, since the benefits of interventions are economy-wide, not just in the health sector, we suggest that interventions to reduce resistance could be funded by industry.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2009 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 12th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Santiago, Chile
Date: 2009
Version:
Created: Keogh-Brown, M. (4/15/2009)
Updated: Keogh-Brown, M. (4/15/2009)
Visits: 2,850
- Labor market issues
- European Union


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