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GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #3107

"Global cropland conversion in a spatially-explicit scenario on available land in an integrated modelling framework"
by Krause, Michael, Hermann Lotze-Campen and Alexander Popp


Abstract
The pressure on land as required input in competing uses fuelled research on trade-offs in land use due to agricultural land expansion to meet food demand which is explicitly and implicitly treated in global land use modelling. Global land use studies rely on assessing the trade-offs by assuming policy, environmental, and economic constraints on the availability of land but do not base on consistent land use budgets. Commonly, they lack the focus on a holistic view on land use which employs different categories including trade-offs without mixing land use with land cover categories.
We pursue a spatially-explicit land use budgeting approach in global available land assessment to overcome overlaps in classification. Objectives pertain to (a) identifying and integrating plausible environmental datasets in consistent land use datasets and (b) identifying and analysing the available land base and plausible exogenous land conversion rates in the agricultural land use optimization model MAgPIE.
Methodologically, consistent spatially-explicit land use datasets and incorporated climate, physical and normative constraints are used in a static geographical approach to overcome overlaps in classification. In a second step, the generated available-land-input datasets from pre-processing are implemented in MAgPIE as constraint equations. Assumed environmental trade-offs are complemented by economic trade-offs in terms of costs of land conversion and technological change. The analysis of land expansion scenarios is complemented by examining the sensitivity of model outputs to the variation of historical cropland conversion. Model behaviour is demonstrated in optimization runs until 2055.
Results and conclusions refer to the available stock for conversion and land use patterns, the sensitivity of total costs and required technological change to parameter changes in land conversion rates.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2009 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 12th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Santiago, Chile
Date: 2009
Version:
Created: Krause, M. (4/15/2009)
Updated: Krause, M. (6/30/2009)
Visits: 1,119
- Agricultural policies
- Technological change
- Climate change policy


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  File format GTAP Resource 3107, Conference paper 2009  (200.9 KB)   Replicated: 0 time(s)


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