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GTAP Resource #3133

"Climate Change and the Future of Global Agriculture"
by Medvedev, Denis, Dominique van der Mensbrugghe and John Beghin

Many factors will shape global agriculture looking ahead. On the food demand side the world is likely to witness a slowing of population growth, and in some regions absolute decline, but this may be partially offset by rising incomes and a shift in food demand towards meat and dairy and fruits and vegetables. The emergence of biofuels has increased the demand for agricultural commodities and linked these markets to fossil energy markets, inducing food-bio-energy trade-offs whose long-term consequences are not yet fully delineated. On the supply side productivity gains have been in decline over the last decade and production may be limited by land and water availability. Could this mean the end of the trend of a relative decline in agricultural prices? How will these various trends play at a country and regional scale? Will countries facing increasing reliance on imports implement policies to insure some level of ‘food security’? This paper will illustrate the impacts of various different assumptions linked to both the demand and supply side using the World Bank’s ENVISAGE dynamic global applied general equilibrium model.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2009 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 12th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Santiago, Chile
Date: 2009
Created: Beghin, J. (4/16/2009)
Updated: Beghin, J. (4/16/2009)
Visits: 2,882
- Climate change policy
- Renewable energy
- Dynamic modeling

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