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GTAP Resource #3136

"Anticipating the Regional Effects of an Ageing Population: A Dynamic CGE Analysis for Finland"
by Honkatukia, Juha, Jouko Kinnunen and Kimmo Marttila


Abstract
Coping with the effects of an ageing population is among the foremost fiscal challenges in most industrialised countries. Among the European economies, Finland provides an interesting case, as the large post-war baby-boomer generations are some years older than in other European counties, and the country is thus already coping with the effects of ageing. We evaluate the regional effects of ageing using the VERM model, a dynamic, regional CGE model for Finnish Economy. The model bases on the well-known TERM model, but has been extended in several aspects. Our dynamic extension uses MONASH-type dynamics. To study the effects of ageing, we introduce an econometric approach whereby we use econometric results for the parameter values determining the population-driven demand for public services, taking into account changes in the number and in the structure of population. Secondly, we combine CGE analysis to study fiscal pressure on public sector finances. The public sector is divided in tree sub-sectors, namely, the central government, municipalities and social security funds. The study is related to an on-going evaluation of the financial relations especially between the central government and local authorities.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2009 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 12th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Santiago, Chile
Date: 2009
Version:
Created: Marttila, K. (4/16/2009)
Updated: Marttila, K. (6/2/2009)
Visits: 1,658
- Economic growth
- Dynamic modeling
- Europe (Northern)


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