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GTAP Resource #3144

"The Impact of Climate Variability and Change on Economic Growth and Poverty in Zambia"
by Thurlow, James, Tingju Zhu and Xinshen Diao


Abstract
Zambia is a low-income country with a history of erratic economic growth. Some of the uneven performance of the economy has been driven by unsustainable policies, adverse global conditions, and pronounced shocks from macroeconomic reforms (Resnick and Thurlow, forthcoming). While the country has performed well since the late 1990s, with positive economic growth and poverty reduction (see Figure 1), growth in agriculture remains volatile despite improvements in the policy environment. This can, at least in part, be attributed to high rainfall variability, or more generally climate variability, in the country. Indeed some of the more substantial declines in economic growth over the last three decades have occurred during major drought years. Climate variability is especially important for the agricultural sector, which is heavily dependent on rainfall due to the country’s limited irrigation capacity. Climate variability may also undermine attempts to reduce poverty, since most of Zambia’s poor population live in rural areas and are heavily dependent on agricultural incomes. Overcoming climate variability therefore poses a significant challenge to maintaining agricultural growth, significantly reducing poverty, and achieving the Millennium Development Goals. It also heightens concern over potentially negative impacts from climate change. Together climate variability and climate change places considerable pressure on Zambia’s government to improve incentives for farmers and for the private sector to invest in infrastructure and improve productivity


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: GTAP Application
Status: Not published
By/In:
Date: 2009
Version:
Created: Thurlow, J. (4/20/2009)
Updated: Thurlow, J. (4/20/2009)
Visits: 2,460
- Economic development
- Dynamic modeling
- Africa (Southern)


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