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GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #3271

"The Impacts of Different Policies on Global Food Production"
by Huan-Niemi, Ellen and Janne Niemi

The aim of this study is to project global food production over the next two decades under four scenarios: world economic recession, climate change mitigation policies, complete removal of only EU agricultural subsidies, and total trade liberalisation for agriculture worldwide. The impact of the economic crisis scenario on food production is only for the short term compared to the baseline. The drop in consumption for meat products is generally higher in developing countries compared to the developed countries, therefore the decline in meat production is more pronounced for example in the LDCs and Mercosur. The climate policy measures would have a negative impact on food production that is energy intensive with high usage of fertiliser and transport such as in Russia and the Mercosur. The climate change mitigation policy scenario would decrease poultry and pigmeat production in China and Mercosur compared to the baseline due to the increase in production cost as a result of rising feedstock prices. The EU subsidy removal scenario has barely any impact on food production in the LDCs or other countries/regions in the world compared to the baseline. The impact on world food market is insignificant because there is no change in border protection for EU domestic production and border protection worldwide. The removal of EU subsidy is changing the production patterns within the EU-27 regions by transferring production from high cost producers to low cost producers in the EU. The simulations demonstrate that large and highly populated countries like China and India have the potential to be large net exporter of meat products. India is projected to be a major bovine meat exporter, and China is projected to be the main poultry and pigmeat exporter under trade liberalisation. Nevertheless, the ability of these countries to increase meat production at such a rapid rate and conquer the export market can be debated due to the numerous constrains face by these countries.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2010 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 13th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Penang, Malaysia
Date: 2010
Created: Huan-Niemi, E. (4/14/2010)
Updated: Huan-Niemi, E. (4/14/2010)
Visits: 1,136
- Agricultural policies
- Economic growth
- Climate change policy
- Dynamic modeling
- Asia (East)
- Asia (South-Central)
- European Union
- North America
- South America

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