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GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #3296

"Climate Change and Economic Growth: Impacts and Interactions"
by Roson, Roberto and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe


Abstract
An integrated assessment model (ENVISAGE), including a CGE-based
economic module and a climatic module (derived from MERGE), is used to
assess the effects of a variety of climate change impacts. These impacts
include: sea level rise, variations in crop yield, water availability,
human health, tourism, energy demand. Impacts are modeled as exogenous
variations in primary resources endowments, or productivity, or changes
in the structure of demand. These impacts vary over time, often in a
non-linear way. Two scenarios are compared. A baseline growth path,
disregarding any climate change effect, and a counterfactual case,
accounting for the impacts. The purpose is to assess the overall
magnitude of the impacts, their regional distribution, and the
contribution of each specific impact to the overall variation of income
and welfare. In addition, the model results highlight how trade and
factor mobility may affect the economic consequences of climate change.
The findings are compared with other available in the literature, in
order to understand what drives the possible differences, and how.

Preliminary results (e.g., on real GDP) shows that climate change
impacts are substantial, especially for developing countries and in the
long run. Effects are non linear (sometimes positive in the short-medium
run, for some regions) and dominated by changes in agricultural
productivity (also affected by water availability).


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2010 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 13th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Penang, Malaysia
Date: 2010
Version:
Created: Roson, R. (4/14/2010)
Updated: Batta, G. (4/19/2010)
Visits: 2,780
- Domestic policy analysis
- Trade and the environment
- European Union
- Common Wealth of Independent States


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