GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #3299 |
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"Global Economic Crisis: Implications for the Bangladesh Economy" by Raihan, Selim Abstract The world economy has changed spectacularly since September 2008. What began as a slump in the US housing sector is now a global crisis, spreading to both rich and poor economies. Bangladesh, though not so much globalized financially, depends a significantly on foreign trade. More significantly, its exports including readymade garments, shrimps, leather, etc are heavily dependent on the western consumer demand. Therefore, falling employment and hence the declining income of the average consumers in the USA and Europe are likely to have serious impacts on her export potentials. Also there are concerns with respect to remittance, foreign aid and foreign direct investment. Against this backdrop this study examines the impact of global economic crisis on Bangladesh economy using an economy-wide simulation model. The Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of year 2007 has been used as the benchmark data base and a comparative static CGE model for Bangladesh economy has been employed to simulate for different scenarios. Two simulations have been carried out. It appears that a negative shock in readymade garment exports, whether through fall in demand or fall in export price, would lead to a negative growth manufacturing sector as a whole as well as in real GDP. The welfare and real consumption effects on households are negative and poorer households suffer most. Furthermore, a negative growth in remittance would result in fall in real GDP. Agricultural sector as a whole would also suffer because of falling demand for agricultural commodities as a result of fall in household incomes. The export-oriented sectors, however, would experience some expansion because of depreciation of real exchange rate as well as fall in FOB export prices. The poorer households appear to be the major victim of such a negative shock. |
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- Agricultural policies - Asia (East) - Oceania - European Union - North America - South America |
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Public Access  GTAP Resource 3299 (288.3 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
