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GTAP Resource #3339

"Energy and Economy in 2050: Long-term macroeconomic implications of green house gas emissions - Results form combined simulations with Dynamic GTAP and TIMES Integrated Assessment Models"
by Niemi, Janne, Tiina Koljonen and Antti Lehtila

We employ dynamic general equilibrium model of the world economy in conjunction with a technology-oriented multi-region global energy system model for long-term energy scenarios. In this paper we present the results on the macroeconomic developments affected by energy and climate policies, with a brief overview on the most important technology prospects. Benefits and challenges related to use of the two models are also discussed.

World-wide economy simulations have first been carried out using the database and models of the Global Economic Analysis Project (GTAP). A modified version of the GTAP model and a long-term baseline has been developed for the analysis of global energy questions and the related long-term environmental issues. The GTAP model results were then used as inputs for the drivers, namely the industry outputs in the production sectors, that are exogenous in the TIMES Integrated Assessment energy system model. In addition to comprehensive technology characterisations, the energy system model also includes basically all sources of anthropogenic global greenhouse gas emissions as well as a simplified climate model.

Three different scenarios have been constructed: a “Baseline” scenario featuring continued globalisation, the “Regional World” scenario featuring a rise in more protectionist and nationalist agendas., and the “Global 2°C” scenario reflecting the emissions reduction requirements to meet the global target to limit the temperature increase. In the results of economy simulations, the most striking difference between the “Baseline” and “Regional World” scenarios is in the structures of regional economies. In the “Regional World” scenario, the global output value of all industries in 2050 is only 2–3% below the level of the “Baseline”. However, the distribution of this output between sectors is different. According to the results, the transition towards a modern economy is slower when protectionist and nationalist agendas arise.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2010 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 13th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Penang, Malaysia
Date: 2010
Created: Niemi, J. (4/15/2010)
Updated: Niemi, J. (4/15/2010)
Visits: 2,396
- Domestic policy analysis
- Trade and the environment
- European Union
- Commonwealth of Independent States

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Comments (1 posted)
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Posted by: Niemi, Janne   6/10/2010 6:07:00 AM
Paper being updated.