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GTAP Resource #3378

"Impact of Climate Changes on Chinas Maize Market and Trade"
by Liu, Xiaohe

Climate changes through change in temperature, precipitation and extreme weather events affect grain production, thereby influence the grain supply on the market, price and imports and exports trade. How to analyze climate changes on Chinas grain market and trade effects? How to evaluate the effects of different adaptation measures relating to climate changes? These are issues we need to focus on.
In this paper, eight different regions in China due to their natural and geographical conditions are considered. Based on the prediction of results derived from a regional climate model (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies, PRECIS) and a crop modelling system (Crop Environment Resource Synthesis, CERES), of the above regional output changes of maize in the 2020s and 2040s, a spatial equilibrium model on Chinas maize is developed. It examines the impacts of changes in maize outputs and population growth on regional supply and demand of maize, equilibrium price, inter-regional trade (direction and flows) as well as external imports and exports trade. In addition, the potential economic effects of different climate exchanges adaptation policies and measures will be analysed and compared. Finally, some interesting conclusions will be drawn.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: GTAP Application
Status: Not published
Date: 2010
Created: Liu, X. (4/15/2010)
Updated: Batta, G. (5/17/2010)
Visits: 986
- Climate change policy
- Asia (East)

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