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GTAP Resource #3500

"Migration and Growth in East and South-East Asia"
by Walmsley, Terrie, Angel Aguiar and S. Amer Ahmed

East and South-East Asia face major demographic changes over the next few decades as many countries’ labour forces start to decline, while others experience higher labour force growth as populations and/or participation rates increase. A well-managed labour migration strategy presents itself as a mechanism for ameliorating the impending labour shortages in some East-Asia Pacific countries, while providing an opportunity for other countries with excess labour to provide migrant workers that will contribute to the development of the home country through greater remittance flows.

This study examines the potential impact of increased migration on the East and South-East Asian economies, in light of these projected demographic changes. These potential impacts are analysed using a global dynamic simulation model, with migrant labour flows and remittances used to examine the impact of migration. The global dynamic migration model is based on the Dynamic GTAP (GDyn) model and the GMig2 model. The nature of both demographic changes and migration for individual countries and its effect on other countries justifies the use of a global dynamic economic simulation framework that can account for the factor and price changes that will arise from the substantial labour force changes induced by demographic transition and migration.

While migration would be unable to offset the economic impacts of the declining labour forces in the countries with shrinking populations, a more flexible migration policy, allowing migrants to respond to the major demographic changes occurring in Asia over the next 50 years, would be beneficial to most economies in the region in terms of real incomes and real GDP over the 2007-2050 period. Such a policy could deeply affect the net migration position of a country. Countries that were net recipients under current migration policies might become net senders under the more liberal policy regime.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2011 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 14th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Venice, Italy
Date: 2010
Created: Aguiar, A. (3/30/2011)
Updated: Aguiar, A. (3/30/2011)
Visits: 2,128
- Economic growth
- Labor market issues
- Dynamic modeling
- Asia (East)
- Asia (Southeast)

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