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GTAP Resource #3620

"What are the agricultural exports growth perspectives offered to sub-Saharan countries by current trade negotiations"
by Douillet, Mathilde

Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries are involved in negotiations for increased trade integration at the regional, bilateral and multilateral level. Static effects of those shocks are simulated with the MIRAGE CGE model in order to compare them and test their coherence with the objective of enhanced value-added in agriculture. I find that limiting the analysis of the results to regional GDP and welfare changes can be deceptive since it hides contrasted distributional impacts across sectors and regions. Indeed a combination of DFQF and DDA brings the highest GDP growth both at the world level and for SSA. But, multilateral liberalization, and especially DFQF, would drive SSA countries further away from agricultural led industrialization. The increased competition leads to a reorientation of the structure of production and exports of SSA towards raw agricultural products. Third, on the contrary, regional integration fosters the production and trade of processed agricultural products and trade, and thus might be more in line with the stakes of economic development.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2011 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 14th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Venice, Italy
Date: 2011
Created: Douillet, M. (4/15/2011)
Updated: Douillet, M. (7/13/2011)
Visits: 2,100
- Preferential trading arrangements
- Agricultural policies
- Economic growth
- Economic development
- Africa (Central)
- Africa (East)
- Africa (West)
- Africa (Southern)

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