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GTAP Resource #3632

"Extending energy portfolio with clean technologies in the ICES model."
by Campagnolo, Lorenza, Elisa Portale, Francesco Bosello, Ramiro Parrado and Fabio Eboli


Abstract
Promotion of “clean” technologies is among the main challenging issues in climate policy agendas worldwide. Countries are increasingly recognising the potential role of renewable energy within a portfolio of low-carbon and cost-competitive energy technologies capable of responding to the emerging major challenges of climate change, energy security, and access to energy.
Moreover, as a global problem, climate change requires international mitigation policies. These originate alterations in world energy prices and lead to a re-composition of global energy demand, with a substantial radical change in the energy productive mix. Top-down models have a very reliable macro-economic structure, with interdependences at sectorial and regional level but they present a very poor detailed number of energy technologies within each sector.
This paper suggests a newly modified CGE model and database enriched with a range of clean energy alternative technologies. The starting point is the ICES (Inter-temporal Computable Equilibrium System) model, which is a recursive-dynamic multi-regional general equilibrium model, based on the GTAP dataset and GTAP-E model.
External data are used to split selected GTAP7 database sectors in order to isolate six new energy commodities: solar, wind and hydro electricity, mainly used in power generation.
This higher detailed picture of energy sector proposed can give important insights on how inter-fuel substitution, governed by price signals, determines the composition of energy mix and their evolution across time. Referring to this, the paper presents a baseline scenario which reproduces the historical economic trend until 2020 reflecting occurrence and evolution of financial crisis for the EU27 and the rest of the world grouped in 8 regions. Moreover, a climate policy scenario is proposed focusing on the cost-efficient solution in coordinated action under low pledges of the Copenhagen agreement in a world CO2 market.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2011 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 14th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Venice, Italy
Date: 2011
Version:
Created: Campagnolo, L. (4/15/2011)
Updated: Campagnolo, L. (4/15/2011)
Visits: 1,049
- Climate change policy
- Dynamic modeling
- The GTAP Data Base and extensions


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