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GTAP Resource #3799

"A global-to-local modelling approach to land use dynamics in Vietnam: Potential effects of a high climate impact and a high economic growth scenario"
by Rutten, Martine and Michiel van Dijk

The paper presents an innovative assessment method which integrates a global macro-economic Computable General Equilibrium model with a spatial land use allocation model to analyse future land use patterns in Vietnam under various scenarios. The scenarios include: (1) a baseline scenario reflecting the ‘Business as Usual’ (BaU) and simulates a growth path for Vietnam and the rest of the world assuming no implementation of new policies, (2) a High Climate Impact (HCI) scenario that reveals the consequences of climate change on Vietnam’s economy and land use (modelled primarily through yields) and (3) a High Economic Growth (HEG) scenario which implements the growth target incorporated in the Socio-Economic Development Strategy (SEDS) of Vietnam and yield targets of Vietnam’s Master Plan on Agriculture and demonstrates the consequences for Vietnam’s economic structure and national and local land use. The outcomes of the scenario analyses can be used to identify challenges and opportunities, and to inform policies in the areas of land use, climate change and the overall economy (e.g. trade, food security).

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2012 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 15th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Geneva, Switzerland
Date: 2012
Created: Rutten, M. (4/20/2012)
Updated: Rutten, M. (6/26/2012)
Visits: 2,739
- Economic growth
- Economic development
- Technological change
- Calibration and parameter estimation
- Asia (East)
- Asia (Southeast)
- North America

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