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GTAP Resource #3814

"ENDOGENOUS LAND USE AND SUPPLY, AND FOOD SECURITY IN BRAZIL"
by Ferreira-Filho, Joaquim Bento and Mark Horridge


Abstract
Agriculture area and production has been expanding strongly in Brazil the last 40 years. The area of annual crops almost doubled in the period, while the area under pastures, as well as of planted forests, tripled. The rate of deforestation, on the other hand, although still high, was considerably reduced from year 2004 on. In this paper we analyze the role of deforestation for food supply and food security in Brazil, in the presence of the recent world food prices increases. A multi-period computable general equilibrium model of Brazil, based on previous work of the authors is used to analyze the importance of endogenous land supply for agricultural supply in Brazil. The model includes annual recursive dynamics and a detailed bottom-up regional representation, which for the simulations reported here distinguished 15 aggregated Brazilian regions. It also has 36 sectors, 10 household types, 10 labor grades, and a land use change (LUC) module which tracks land use in each state. The core database is based on the 2005 Brazilian Input-Output model. The LUC model is based on a transition matrix calibrated with data from the Brazilian Agricultural Censuses of 1995 and 2006, which shows how land use changed across different uses (crops, pastures, forestry and natural forests) between those years. This transition matrix is used to project the deforestation rate (or the increase in total land supply) in the baseline scenario, for the period 2005-2025. Results show that the halt in deforestation would decrease Brazilian GDP by about 0.5% in 2025, compared to the baseline situation where deforestation would occur. The decomposition of this result at regional level shows that regional GDP would be increased by values as high as 6% for states on the agricultural frontier, point to the important regional impacts of the halt of deforestation policies. The food bundle of the poorest would also increase more than that of the richest, even though by an small amount.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2012 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 15th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Geneva, Switzerland
Date: 2012
Version:
Created: Ferreira-Filho, J. (4/24/2012)
Updated: Ferreira-Filho, J. (4/24/2012)
Visits: 1,888
- Agricultural policies
- Economic development
- Economic analysis of poverty
- South America


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