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GTAP Resource #3817

"The Role of China in Mitigating Climate Change"
by Paltsev, Sergey, Jennifer Morris, Yongxia Cai, Valerie Karplus and Henry D. Jacoby


Abstract
We explore short-term and long-term implications of several energy scenarios involving China. The focus is on the impacts on China’s energy system, GDP growth, and global climate indicators such as greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, radiative forcing, and temperature. We employ the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework and its economic component, the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. For the analysis of the short-term commitments that China proposed during the UN climate meetings in Copenhagen and Cancun, we show that the targets are reachable at very modest costs. In terms of climate results, in the next 10 years China’s alternative actions do not contribute to any substantial changes to GHG concentrations or temperature due to inertia in the climate system. To consider the long-term climate implications of the Copenhagen-type of commitments, which establish pledges for the next 10 years only, one has to assume the policies after 2020, and the effects differ drastically based on those assumptions for the post-2020 actions. Meeting a 2-degree temperature target is problematic unless radical GHG emissions reductions are assumed in the short-term. In terms of long-term impacts, participation or non-participation of China in a global climate architecture can lead by 2100 to a 200-280 ppm difference in the total GHG concentrations, which results in 1.1-1.3 degree C of temperature change by the end of the century. We conclude that it is essential to engage China in GHG emissions mitigation policies, and alternative actions lead to substantial differences in climate, energy, and economic outcomes. Potential channels for engaging China can be air pollution considerations and involvement in sectoral trading with established emissions trading systems in developed countries....


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2012 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 15th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Geneva, Switzerland
Date: 2012
Version:
Created: Paltsev, S. (4/24/2012)
Updated: Paltsev, S. (4/30/2012)
Visits: 1,312
No keywords have been specified.


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