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GTAP Resource #3889

"Growth in Emerging Economies: Implications for Resource-Rich Countries by 2030 "
by Anderson, Kym and Anna Strutt

Rapid economic growth in recent decades has significantly increased the global economic importance of some emerging, particularly densely populated Asian, economies. If this rapid growth path continues, fast-growing economies will require significantly increased imports of primary products to support their growth, raising the issue of how this change in the global economy will affect resource-rich countries.

This paper explores how global trade patterns might change over the next two decades in the course of economic growth and structural changes under various different growth and trade reform scenarios. We employ the GTAP model and the GTAP database, along with supplementary data from a range of sources to support projections of the global economy to 2030. We first project a baseline to 2030, assuming trade-related policies do not change in each region but that agricultural land, extractable mineral resources, population, skilled and unskilled labour, capital and real GDP grow at exogenously-estimated rates. Given the relatively long-time frame over which we are modelling, we modify the standard GTAP agricultural product income elasticities for rapidly growing developing countries, along with Armington elasticities, to more appropriately reflect their likely values over this time-frame. In the initial projection, the rate of total factor productivity growth is assumed to be the same in each of the non-primary sectors, and to be somewhat higher in some of the primary sectors. This core projection of the world economy is then compared with a number of alternative scenarios. Our analysis focuses particularly on the likely trade and other economic consequences of the core and alternative growth paths for resource-rich economies, including in Southeast Asia, Australasia and Latin America as well as Sub-Saharan Africa.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2012 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 15th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Geneva, Switzerland
Date: 2012
Created: Strutt, A. (4/30/2012)
Updated: Strutt, A. (6/28/2012)
Visits: 2,209
- Preferential trading arrangements
- Agricultural policies
- Economic growth
- Economic development
- Baseline development

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