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GTAP Resource #3892

"The Impacts of Passing Climate Change Tipping Points: A CGE assessment for Europe of rapid sea-level rise"
by Ciscar, Juan Carlos, Robert Nicholls and Jonathan Pycroft

The overall impact of sea-level rise (SLR) is one of the reasons of concern related to climate change. SLR could exceed one metre by the end of the century, which would have serious direct impacts on economic activities located near the coastline (e.g. tourist resorts, industries such as refineries, and harbours), and indirect impacts further inland.
This article estimates the potential impact of SLR on the world economy. The study takes account of damage estimates for land loss, migration and sea floods taken from the DIVA model. The overall general equilibrium economic effects are estimated used the GEM-E3 model. Different levels of SLR are considered.
Our study compares three main SLR scenarios. The first, A1B, is in line with the climate scenario (0.6 metres rise by 2100), the second, ‘Rahmstorf’, with post-IPCC research suggesting higher SLR (1.4 metres rise by 2100) and lastly a ‘2 metres’ SLR by 2100. The damages for the whole EU rise from 0.15% of welfare (A1B scenario) to 0.9% (‘Rahmstorf’) to 1.76% (‘2 metres’). Naturally, the losses for specific countries vary greatly.
The study concludes that there is a significant risk of economic damage of these magnitudes, which are somewhat higher than earlier studies. This is due to a wider range of damage impacts being considered. Furthermore, the study notes that further damages beyond those included are possible, such as damages to the water table, to the coastal ecosystem and indirect effects on economic value. As such even these higher damage estimates can be considered conservative figures.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2012 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 15th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Geneva, Switzerland
Date: 2012
Created: Pycroft, J. (4/30/2012)
Updated: Pycroft, J. (4/30/2012)
Visits: 1,095
- Climate change policy
- Dynamic modeling

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